I'm posting this early because nobody knows what, if anything, will happen today in Berea, what with "The Big Show" in the house and all … Mike Holmgren will meet the media at 4 p.m., so I post this knowing full well the situation could change dramatically before the day ends and by the time any of you read this the rumor mill could be churning out dozens of stories. And I post this (at about 10:35 a.m.) knowing that no matter what I write, some will view it as negativity toward Eric Mangini and his approach. So be it …

1)      Mangini made his case the final four games that he can make things work if he's left to coaching the football team only. Mangini clearly should not lead an entire organization and direct everything. When it came to purely coaching in the last month, the Browns did many good things. Starting with winning four games in a row. Developing the running game. Improving the defense. Recognizing the talent in a guy like linebacker Matt Roth. Mangini actually went from a total disaster of a season — the Browns had never been 1-11 — to making a person step back and wonder if a Holmgren/GM/Mangini troika with clearly defined duties might just work.

2)      The negatives are also clear. The constant early turmoil. The 1-11 start. The early- and mid-season losses by 20 or more points to Denver, Baltimore, Green Bay, Chicago. The other one-sided defeats to Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and San Diego. The fact that the defense gave up 27 or more points in eight of the 16 games. The timeout decisions against Cincinnati (botched) and Detroit (a tad more justified, but it sure hurt). Bill Parcells' always says a team is its record, and the Browns are 5-11. They rank 32nd in total offense, 31st in total defense and 29th in turnover differential. There were complaints from players about long practices and complaints from the coach about Detroit faking injuries. There also was the whining over a proper pass interference call in Detroit and the George Kokinis fiasco — a fiasco Holmgren must get his mitts around before moving forward. In the Browns 11 losses, their average margin of defeat was 15 points. Those are the total-picture realities that Holmgren cannot ignore.

3)      The players played hard the final month, but I'm not buying they played hard for their coach. Too many of them privately were telling friends and associates that they were frustrated with the approach and weary of the negativity and mental stress brought on by the approach. It wasn't merely long practices. It was the constant negativity that beats people down. The feeling in the locker room the day after the game was a combination of pride to end on winning notes and relief that everything was over. The phrase that kept flashing through my mind was one I heard way back in training camp from a very keen NFL type: Right approach, wrong guy.

4)      I've written several times this season that people have told me that the private Mangini is far different from the public one. That in private he's engaging, humorous and personable. This came across in his midseason interview with Clark Judge and in his final-game news conference after the win over Jacksonville. I have to assume this is true, given I heard it from so many people. But the one thing that I can't ignore is that Mangini did not start to change publicly until Bernie Kosar had been brought in as a consultant and until Randy Lerner made it clear he was going to bring in a credible leader to run football. At that point, it was evident Mangini's power base was eroding, and with each loss his security base also was eroding. He seemed to change at that point, and so did the team. It could have been coincidence. It could well be that at the same time that the "czar" (I hate that word) search began, the team started to "get it" and Mangini relaxed and decided to be more himself. That is what Holmgren must decide.

5)      Whatever happens, the Browns must deal with the reality that 2011 could include a lockout of players by owners. Already owners have generated quite a fund to protect themselves and they also are writing protections in some contracts with coaches that would only require them to pay a percentage of the salary due if there is a lockout. The general thinking is the owners are serious this time, though they've been serious in the past and not followed through. The free agent status of some key Browns — including Roth, RB Jerome Harrison and FB Lawrence Vickers — might not be known until March 5. Because if no new CBA is ratified by that point, new free agent rules will kick in, and those three guys will be among those affected. All will become restricted free agents instead of unrestricted, and their ability to test the market will be curtailed. The last time the league and players union negotiated a new CBA, there were two extensions of the deadline to get a deal done. Owners are talking tough this time, so a new CBA might not be ratified prior to free agency, which would make 2010 an uncapped year.

6)      One thing that helped the run defense the end of the season was the addition of Roth. He's a strong, gnarly guy who can stand up on the edge and keep teams from running in his direction. Roth's presence made a difference, and he was a very nice pickup. Give credit to Mangini for claiming him. Oddity: Had the Browns won in Detroit, they'd not have been able to claim Roth, because Detroit would have been ahead of them in the pecking/waiver order.

7)      As strong as the running game turned out as the season progressed, the passing game was woeful. Weather conditions had much to do with that against Pittsburgh and Jacksonville, but the team's two quarterbacks hardly distinguished themselves. This is another interesting decision for Holmgren — how the Browns proceed at quarterback. Much, of course, depends on the coach.

8)      Here's a name to keep in mind for the coach … if Mangini is not retained: Carolina coach John Fox. Fox has one year left on his deal, and the Panthers have said they will keep him but will not extend his contract, which expires after next season. That brings a lot of uncertainty to his table, because if there's a lockout he will not be paid. Fox surely would want security, and he and Holmgren have the same agent: Bob Lamonte. I'd be more than happy with Fox. He's an experienced coach, a very good coach. And he's a Holmgren guy. I'd be a lot more excited about John Fox than I would be excited about Marty Mornhinweg, whose name has been bandied about. In fact, if the Mornhinweg rumors have legs, I'd advocate keeping Mangini (though I have a lot of faith in Holmgren). Fox, though, would be a strong hire, and word is that the Panthers would release Fox from his contract if he wanted out. Remember back in 2001, too, that there were two NFL assistant coaches the Browns were considering in addition to Butch Davis: Marvin Lewis and Fox. Both turned into pretty good head coaches. If he did come to Cleveland, Fox would bring eight years of experience and a 71-57 record, 5-3 in the playoffs.

9)      I quipped to Jerome Harrison (doesn't it always sound so much more important when you say "I said to … " or "I discussed with … " … what a joke) that 30 carries a game like he had the Browns final three games would put him close to 500 for a season. "That'd be all right," he said. "At least you know your math." No NFL back can withstand that many carries in a season, but in his final eight games at Washington State in 2005, he had 36, 28, 38, 21, 26, 34. 29 and 31 carries. Average: 30 per game. I recall Phil Savage holding a news conference once in the Browns draft room, and he pointed out the team's board. Some players' names had a star by them. Savage had asked each scout to choose one player who was so good that he, the scout, would stake his reputation on him. Harrison's name had a star. Wonder where that scout is now?

10)  Finally, Mangini deserves credit for the way he conducted himself this season. He never took criticism personally. He answered questions to the best of his ability. He might not have been as open as I might have liked, but he took some shots — locally and nationally — and never held it against anyone or let it affect how he answered a question. That's more than commendable. He's also been very professional about what might happen with Holmgren coming in. He's said over and over that he respects Holmgren has a decision to make, that he's been the one making similar decisions and he will understand if Holmgren decides a change is needed. He's done some lobbying for his job, but in general he's approached this situation about as well as it can be approached. I salute him for all of that.

And … because it's the Browns … a bonus 11 …

11)  One of the interesting things about the final month is that some of the guys who helped Mangini win games might look pretty interesting in a West Coast style offense — assuming Mike Holmgren implements it. Those guys would be Harrison and Evan Moore, both of whom can catch the ball and make yards after the catch. Moore ranks up there with Roth as a more-than-solid in-season addition.

Three and Out

Dear Pat,

According to at least half of the posters on your blog (that's at least 50,000 by my math), you know absolutely nothing about football.  If this is the case, how did you ever manage to become a lead sports columnist for a newspaper, let alone a football beat writer for two NFL teams?

Are you the same Patrick McManamon that wrote the book "University of Miami national championship, 1991"?  If so, is this a 146-page coloring book?

Is Brady Quinn your illegitimate son?  Were you in Columbus for a night or two in late January, 1984?  "Brady Quinn" sounds Irish to me.

Sorry for all of the questions, but I think we deserve to know exactly who we are dealing with here?.

Brian Dickey

Twinsburg

Dear Brian,

Quite personal, aren't you?

First of all, I'm not going to dignify the Quinn questions. It's not nice to his parents. Too, he once held the door for me at Panera, so I'm not jumping on these scurrilous questions, though the answer is "no" to both.

As for the blog haters, I don't always get it. But then again, when do I always get it?

I write an opinion. Folks can disagree, and I get that. In fact, I welcome open discussion and good-natured ribbing. But the personal rips are a little intriguing. Heck, I'm just a guy who's lucky enough to have a great job, which gets me more information and access than the average guy in the bar. I would hope that folks know when I present an opinion it is based on research and information more than observation.

In truth, the folks who comment on the newspaper stories online are worse than the bloggers. I sort of feel like a big family is discussing things on the frog; the newspaper commenters really hack and slash (a couple are below).

Guess that's why it's a great country.

As for the University of Miami book, yes, that was me. I covered that team and wrote that book. And no, it's not a coloring book. It's colorform. Big difference.

As for my qualifications to cover two teams and be a columnist … I'd guess there are perks to being able to type fast.

Dear Pat,

If you had to assign a letter grade to the job Eric Mangini has done with the Cleveland Browns this year, would you give him a B+ like President Obama gave himself; or would it be much lower, or possibly a bit higher?

Thank you, Bill Lucey

Dear Bill,

It would not be higher, but it would be lower.

The exact grade I shall not reveal because it would only provide more fuel to the fire of those who claim I am only negative regarding Mangini.

I will merely say he started poorly and finished well.

You are welcome.

Dear Pat,

How ya doin'? I didn't get to watch Sunday's game. My son had a wrestling match, but from what I could catch on the radio, they played pretty well. But … I would still fire Mangini.

I try to have a long memory, and I still can't get that crap out of my mind from earlier in the season. I could go on and on with some of his antics, but you know the story. Don't cut him any slack.

He just isn't a good man. Nor is he a winner.

Your faithful reader from Canal Fulton

Paul Milinkovich

Dear Paul,

I'm doin' good, but I'm probably not in the position to judge Mangini as a man.

I think, Paul, that my feelings are known about him and the Browns. That being said, there are many, many people who disagree.

I believe I've heard from a lot of them the past few days. Including these from online comments following my column in Tuesday's Beacon Journal:

"Pat … You degrade yourself every time you write about the Browns and Mangini. I'm ashamed for you."

And this:

"Pat … Why don't you go elsewhere and write about sports? Maybe Pittsburgh."

Time to start packing.

First, though, it's probably best to have a Guinness.

(Want to be recognized in “Three and Out”? It’s a rare treat. Comment here or send an e-mail to pmcmanamon@thebeaconjournal.com, and put “First and 10” in the subject line.)

 The Miami Herald got some unusual access to former Browns quarterback Bernie Kosar on the day he filed for bankruptcy. Here is the story. One highlight from Kosar: "I was 25 and everyone was telling me that I was the smartest; now I'm 45 and realize I'm an idiot. I'm 45 and immature. I don't like being 45." And another tidbit: "He speaks with a slur and admits there has been drinking and pain medication in his past, but says the only thing he's addicted to is football. Drugs? Alcohol? 'Would my kids be living with me if that were really the case?' he asks. 'If I did 10 percent of things I'm accused of, I'd be dead.' He says the divorce has cost him between $4 and $5 million already. 'That's just fees,' he says. 'And they keep coming. Attorneys charge $600 an hour just to screw things up more.' And here's the worst part: 'I don't want to get divorced,' he says. 'I'm Catholic, and I'm loyal, and I still love her."'

And he owes the Browns $1.5 million.