I offered some thoughts yesterday on Grady Sizemore, and the main one was that his batting average is too low and his strikeouts too high for my taste.
A good friend I've never actually met but have communicated with frequently, Geoff Beckman of the Tribe Report, pointed out that Sizemore's walk and strikeout totals are high because teams pitch around him. In past years when there was no capable No. 2 hitter, teams did not give Sizemore a lot to hit. This is an argument to perhaps move Sizemore to third in the order as opposed to leadoff. That has its appealing qualities, but it also means that the Indians have to find a new leadoff hitter.
Beckman also pointed out that certain pitchers abuse Sizemore. For example, he's hit .205 with 13Ks in 46 at-bats against Javier Vasquez, and .194 with 11 Ks in 41 at-bats against Gil Meche. Perhaps, Beckman theorizes, Sizemore should just sit against them.
Beckman studies this a lot more than me, so I'm not one to question his assessment. He also said that Sizemore's on-base percentage and career OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) of .861 show his value.
For the record, I do not think Sizemore is a problem. Clearly he's one of the few non-problems on the Indians. I just think he should hit for a higher average (provided he's not pitched around) and strike out less.
But for the heck of it I went to a site called fangraphs.com and got some fundamental information on Sizemore.
This first one shows his batting average through the years, compared to the league average. Clearly he's not getting better:
Even his on-base percentage is hovering near average this season:
His slugging percentage, though, is well above the norm – I'm guessing thanks to his ability to hit home runs.
And he clearly walks a lot more than the average player. This supports the claim teams pitch around him, and also demonstrates part of his value because the guy does get on base a lot.
However, his strikeouts are higher than the league average. Although last year he seemed to do a better job of putting the ball in play, this year he's not.
His walk-to-strikeout ratio was trending the wrong way, but is back in line with the average player.
What's the conclusion? I'm not sure. (Do I need something to do or what???)
I just think a potential MVP and superstar would be a little better at avoiding strikeouts. Too many of the above graphs are in the "average" range.
Next week we graph the incidence of base hits to right off slurveball pitchers with the swine flu virus floating in the air of ballparks built with a foul territory area more than 8 percent deviation from the norm.
Come on Pat, with all of the other issues that this team has you're going to single out the one guy on the team that shows up night after night and gives his all. Grady seems to know quite well what his issues are and took responsibility for it in an interview after the bullpen blew a 3 run lead on Wednesday. He didn't lay it at the feet of Jensen Lewis or anyone else, he took it on his own shoulders. I think your time could be spent investigating the effect of losing Louie Isaac in the 'pen or something else.
Tough to come to conclusions for 2009 yet. We're working with a pretty small sample size at this point in the season.
Brian,
No one is beyond reproach. Michael Jordan took criticism, LBJ gets criticism, Peyton Manning got it, Albert Pujols used to get it (he may have ascended above it though).
Grady is a helluva player, and a pretty good character guy also. But if he is going to be a star and leader in MLB, he needs to get it going. I also agree with dwhit above, much season left to turn it around.
And I agree with you about Luis Isaac, garbage move.
Drew I can see your side as well.
i look at this as an indictment of wedge and shapiro more than it is of sizemore. we all know grady is a good player but wedge and shapiro build this guy up to be a bit more than he is.
he is NOT the ideal lead off hitter.
if wedge and shapiro had given up this delusion earlier maybe the tribe would have a little more to show for their efforts than a career of underachievement flavored with a couple chokes.
How 'bout that Tom Hamilton. His glib retort to fans who'd like to see Grady moved down in the order: "If there's one guy in your lineup you want to get five at bats, it's Grady. Kinda ends the argument right there."
i guess tom hamilton likes watching one of the few guys with home run power drive in 1 run for each shot. he also probably thinks wedge is one of the best managers in the game when all i see is 4th best in the division at best.
Sizemore's strikeouts are item #5,268 on my "Things I'd like to fix about the 2009 Indians" (Leading the list: Seeing the words "David Dellucci" and "DFA" in the same sentence.)
But Pat makes a fair point. We talk about Sizemore like he's an exciting young player who still has plenty of time to develop, but Johnny Peralta as a bum who's gotten as good as he'll ever get, and why don't we dump him?
The two players are the same age (Peralta is three months older) and have played almost the same number of games in the majors and minors (Sizemore, because he leads off, has more at-bats). It's not OK to frag one guy and wave your hand at the other.
Peralta's defense, of course, is a reason that people frag him… but why blame him because hims manager and GM play him at short, rather than thrid base or right field?
Also in the "Stop blaming the victim" cartegory: If people want Sizemore to drive in runs, get him out of the leadoff spot, so he stops batting with Ben Francisco and Tony Graffanino on base.
As for "Who bats leadoff", try the player with the .430 on-base percentage, who can currently be found in the #2 spot. Having Asdrubal Cabrera hitting singles and drawing walks, with Sizemore hitting double and home runs behind him– as opposed to vice-versa– improves the offense a lot.
Also, since Sizemore is a lefthanded hitter, you'd always have the hit and run option open. Plus, you'd never have any GIDPs. And with Martinez behind him, people would think twice about pitching around Sizemore.
I hadn't listened to Indians radio broadcasts for literally 30 years until several weeks ago, since I can now get the radio broadcasts on FM. The prior broadcasts were on AM, and the reception absolutely stunk. Lordy, this Tom Hamilton guy is a hollerin' homer. Even Herb Score at his very, very worst never came remotely close to this guy in the suck department.
At times I've had the game on TV while I'm listening to the radio, and I've also noticed a propensity for him to grossly exaggerate things, let alone describe things that never even happened. Of course if you're not watching, then you have to take his word for what's happening. Which sometimes actually isn't.
What in the hell is Hamilton talking about? The very reason there *is* an argument is because Sizemore has never had a full season of less than 628 at-bats. But since he's obviously neither Rod Carew nor Ichiro Suzuki, if there's nobody on base and/or he doesn't get on base, then it kind of defeats the purpose for Sizemore batting leadoff in the first place. Last I heard, a strikeout is not a single. So if you're going to be a homer employee, at least make your assertions halfway plausible.
Brian,
You've got a good point. Even as I was writing it I was thinking … geesh, do I really need to be bringing up this stuff about Sizemore??? But as I said, I think he's one heck of a player. And among the least of the Indians problems. I just find this stuff interesting I guess. And I think he should hit for a higher average and strike out less. Not that great a criticism really, is it? But … I hear your point. He is a dependable guy, a very good player and a stand-up guy. I actually thought in this post that I was criticizing myself as much as Grady.
pat
Geoff pretty much has it above, with the salient point being the organization itself also needs to take a good hard look inward to challenge its own precepts and re-think its focus and priorities. What should be sufficiently clear is the present formula, largely in place for awhile, is not getting it done.
Too many K's. Annually slumping w/RISP for ungodly stretches. Too little regard for absence of speed and defensive range.
If a fan can see Grady is being pitched around and even the dullest baseball mind has to be aware the leadoff guy comes up too much with either no one on or guys who can't run and too rarely get on undermining his RBI opportunities.
History has shown us managers who'd pull a lineup out of a cap, just to relax the guys and allow for a re-boot. But the Tribe can't even bunch Grady right in front of whatever few hot guys there are, so as to maximize the CF's OBP and the latter group's run-producing potentials.
Talk about rigid and myopic. Damn "the consistency and stability" if the recipe isn't working.
I think Grady was the first matinee idol in the Dolan-era stable and he's just another marketing tool like bobblehead night and Beach weekend in the eyes of the ownership. It was the job of Shapiro and the marketing team to elevate him god status. And they haven't stopped… see Trevor Crowe and Matt LaPorta.
Grady is a decent, hardworking player. Should he be hitting leadoff? Well, it doesn't matter for the Indians – because they haven't been aggressive on the bases in for-ever. And I don't think its really fair for one person to be the team the way that management/ownership has done with him. Grady would've gotten his fans (male too….) by his style of play – it didn't need to be beaten into our skulls. But I'm not going to pin everything on him, or any player for that matter. This is an organizational problem… there is no clear objective. This team isn't built to win a championship or contend. God willing they catch a lucky break, string some wins together, and take advantage of a weak, albeit competitive, division.
You're wrong, Elizabeth. Sizemore was not the first matinee idol of the Dolan Era. Hafner obviously made it to Hollywood long before Sizemore.
http://cache.io9.com/assets/images/io9/2008/06/oth0002.jpg
My bad, Alan t. Glad you're around to point these things out
It ain't easy bein' green, and as Hafner has discovered, it ain't easy to hit a baseball, either.
Sizemore is the only leadoff hitter the team has.
After the first time up, especially in the AL, leadoff is an RBI position.
If one of the punch and judy guys we have like Crowe, Brantley or Francisco ever start playing like leadoff hitters, I have no problem moving Grady to #3. But I don't want rotating leadoff hitters while one of them tries to win the job.
VMart hitting behind Sizemore might help, but I need to see someone who can get on base in the #1 spot first.
too bad sizemore's rbi totals aren't indicative of a supposed "rbi position". sizemore hit 11 more home runs last year than in 2007 yet he only had 12 more rbi's and he has never driven in 100 runs although is is capable of that and more. giving the opposing team an opportunity to pitch around your home run guy like wedge does every game is moron level managing.
the bottom line is that the team has needed a leadoff hitter this whole time but shapiro/wedge continue to try to sell to the fans that sizemore is the answer. sizemore is wasted at the leadoff. adding a mediocre leadoff guy is an improvement to the team as a whole. it gives sizemore a chance to actually drive in runs.
moving sizemore down in the lineup solves one problem. leaving him at leadoff solves nothing.