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Washington's Attention Deficit Disorder

by Da King on March 7, 2010

in economics,federal spending,taxes,Uncategorized,White House administration

President Obama often refers to "the failed policies of the past" to criticize his predecessor, President Bush. One of those Bush "failed policies," according to Obama, was the Bush tax cuts, which the President and practically every other Democrat have railed against for years. There is a reason for such criticism, though it really wasn't the Bush tax cuts alone that caused the problem. It was Bush cutting taxes at the same time he ramped up federal spending that led to federal deficits and a net increase in federal debt of around $4.5 trillion during his tenure in office.

Keep Obama's "failed policies of the past" rhetoric in mind as you read the CBO's latest debt projections on Obama's watch. From the Washington Post:

President Obama's proposed budget would add more than $9.7 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, congressional budget analysts said Friday. Proposed tax cuts for the middle class account for nearly a third of that shortfall… "Over the next 10 years, those policies would reduce revenues and boost outlays for refundable tax credits by a total of $3.0 trillion," wrote Douglas W. Elmendorf, the CBO director. Combined with interest payments on that shortfall, the tax cuts account for the entire increase in deficits that would result from Obama's proposals.

If Bush cutting taxes and increasing federal spending was a "failed policy of the past," then how should we describe Obama's cutting taxes and increasing spending at twice the rate Bush did, resulting in twice as much debt as Bush ? Should we call Obama's policies, failed policies of the past on steroids, or what ??? When Obama promised change, I'm betting most of you didn't anticipate a change for the worse.

Any long-term CBO debt projection contains assumptions, of course, and the current CBO projections (through 2020) include assumptions that GDP will increase over 4% per year, that unemployment will gradually fall to 4.8%, and that the price index will remain relatively stable. I don't want to be a pessimist here, but what if those assumptions DON'T come to pass ??? The accumulated debt will then be even greater. Even if the CBO assumptions are correct, we will have a federal debt well over $20 trillion by the end of the decade, with interest payments on the debt soaring to $800 billion annually.

And that renders most of Obama's presidential economic pronouncements to be little more than the politics of the meaningless.

  • larry d.

    My guess is he'll scotch the tax cuts as part of being fiscally responsible then go ahead and increase spending and the CBO's forecast will still fall far short of the debt Obama will rack up.

  • Da King

    I found it a little odd that WaPo and Elmendorff didn't say "increased federal spending will account for 2/3rds of the debt increase," and instead focused on the smaller tax cut part of the debt, but that's what the Democrat-leaners do. They can't see the forest for the trees.

    And I'm certain that Obama and company are furiously looking for ways to increase government revenue. That's just how they roll. Any spending cuts will be trivial. The Dems couldn't even cut $10 billion for the unemployment extension, as required by Pay-Go. I could have found that money to cut in about two minutes and nobody would have ever noticed it (as in cutting $10 billion of the $500 billion left in the stimulus package).

  • The Reverend

    "Combined with interest payments on that shortfall, the tax cuts account for the entire increase in deficits that would result from Obama's proposals."

    He's just giving American workers….who make less than $250,000 per year….their money back….isn't it their money?

    Running up deficits by handing bags of money to already rich people, running up deficits by never paying for any legislation passed, because "deficits don't matter"….running up deficits though imperialistic crime-wars of choice…..are all good, proper and Serious.

    It's only when WORKING Americans have their taxes cut at the same time rich Americans have to pay more….it's only then….that there is a problem. Standard conservative rhetoric.

    Is debt a problem in America? Of course. Just like debt is a problem in quite a few world countries today. Conservatives and Republicans, who represent, whether they know it or not, only the richest of rich America, are wired tight to cut Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. Big Deficit Fear stories, after sleeping for 8 years, is all that corporate-whore media will spin out of their rotted industry……because corporate-whore media honchos don't want their millionaire tax rates to rise.

  • N. E. Frye

    Casting aside the hyperbole, Rev., I"d say you are picking at part of our problem. I never could see a flat rate tax. Maybe we need a law that says in effect that nobody can make more than – what 100? 200? – say 250 times what the lowest fulltime working wage earner makes. Having spent some time teaching, I'm convinced that we are NOT created equal. And even if we were the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune would soon separate us drastically. A tax I'd reinstate would be the estate tax.; at least on large estates; certainly not in such a way asn to force famiy survuvors to sell the family homestead, but if the family homestead is Biltmore then they should sell it.

    It always seemed to me that a strength of this country was the fact that everybody and his brotherconsidered themseles middle class . I'll bet the folks in Haiti don't feel like that.

  • Tbomb

    Score that one Rev 1 king 0.

  • larry d.

    Actually, the strength of this country has been the fact that everybody and his brother has felt he can move up in class.

  • Andrea

    Come on ..if Bush had a third term right now the deficit and budget would be looking just about the same maybe worse.
    We would have had a stimulus bill (since we all know actually Bush proposed one too ) -
    we would have bailed out the banks same ones most likely -
    we would have sent probably even more troops to Iraq and Afghanistan and expanded our military budget-
    the only difference is if the democrats had proposed some legislation for health care reform to protect many Americans from future bankruptcy from health care costs he would have made sure the plain got killed and the insurance companies remained in power
    the only difference would have been he would have made sure his tax cuts for the rich were extended so the deficit actually would have been growing higher right now than is under Obama
    BUT the big difference woudl have been all you guys would have been remarkably silent right now .
    So what are you complaining about ?

  • N. E. Frye

    You're right about most of that Andrea. About the only nits I can pick are:

    (1) ". . . and the insurance companies remained in power." You seem to be implying that they have been or are being disempowered. Really?

    (2)" . . . all you guys would have been remarkably silent right now ." Come on Andrea, you don't really believe that, do you?

  • Bubba

    Andrea is saying Obama is the same as Bush. That is change you can believe in.

  • Da King

    Rev says, "It's only when WORKING Americans have their taxes cut at the same time rich Americans have to pay more….it's only then….that there is a problem. Standard conservative rhetoric."

    How did you become so confused, Rev ? First of all, the Bush tax cuts were for working people too. Second, I was quoting the CBO's and WaPo's opinion of what is causing the Obama deficits, not my own. My opinion is that it's primarily the spending increases that are causing the deficits, which is pretty obvious if you look at the numbers. Third, I'm all for tax cuts, as long as they are PAID FOR (via spending cuts). It's the deficits I'm against. Fourth, you can't complain incessantly about the Bush deficits and then excuse the Obama deficits when they are twice the size of Bush's.

    Give up the partisan propaganda and go soak your head. Maybe it will help.

  • Da King

    Frye,
    Both Andrea and the Reverend know I have railed and railed against Bush's deficits and debt increases. They are just playing dishonest games. The facts don't matter.

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  • The Reverend

    Here's where we differ…

    "My opinion is that it's primarily the spending increases that are causing the deficits, which is pretty obvious if you look at the numbers."

    Strictly from a cash flow perspective…..loss of revenue (huge tax cuts affecting the richest disproportionately)…….LOWERS government revenue, which automatically and predictably creates a BIGGER deficit. We're talking trillions in lost revenue. How that translates into 'spending is the primary cause of rising deficits'……is beyond me. Spending is part of the issue, yes, but with significantly lower cash flows built in by the deep tax cuts for the affluent, it becomes a bigger uphill fight.

  • Da King

    If it's beyond you, then allow me explain it to you, without the partisan spin.

    Look at the years 2000-2008, before the recession hit full force and killed federal revenue. During those years, federal revenue went from $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion. Federal revenue INCREASED by 25% during those years. During the same period, federal spending went from $1.789 trillion to $2.982 trillion. That's a spending increase of 66%, far beyond the rate of inflation. This reveals the main culprit to be SPENDING, as I said.

    Now, of course, federal revenue has fallen even further with the recession, and we'd have to nearly double revenue (taxes) to pay for all the federal spending, which Obama is taking even further into the stratosphere than Bush did. There's no way we can afford that without destroying our economy.

    This is actually simple stuff, once you take all the partisan nonsense out of it.

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