Breaking down the series with Celtics
Five keys to victory
1. Make it a game or make it a blowout — The Celtics spent most of the season routing teams, especially on their home floor. They beat the Hawks by an average of 25 points at home in the first round. The Cavs, meanwhile, played close games the entire season. They were actually outscored by their opponents over the 82 games, yet still were eight games over .500. The Celtics did not respond well in the close games in the Hawks series and there is a question as to whether their players are conditioned after taking so many fourth quarters off. The objectives for each team seem simple.
2. Handle the pressure — The Celtics are one of the most physical defensive teams in recent NBA history. They overplay the perimeter and apply lots of extra pressure to the opposition’s ball handlers. The Cavs have not handled this well at times in the past, especially on the road as Delonte West and Daniel Gibson have been inconsistent. For the Celtics, they are expected to win and easily. The tigher the Cavs play them the more they will battle not just the opponent but the lofty expectations of a very intense local and national fanbase.
3. Beware the backside — Both the Cavs and Celtics have similar defensive styles. They play shrink the floor defense, where they will bring lots of help to the side of the floor where the ball is. For the Cavs, this means where LeBron James is. For the Celtics, this is where Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett are. This will give chances for Ray Allen and James Posey and Gibson, West and Wally Szczerbiak to have open shots. Which team takes advantage will have an edge.
4. Big 3 or Super 1 — In just five years in the NBA, James as more playoff series victories than Garnett, Allen or Pierce. He’s been a much better clutch performer and he’s dominated in crunch time. Combined, the Celtics powerful trio just put together an amazing 66-win season but they have yet to show they can get it done in the postseason and their opening series against the Hawks was shaky. The Celtics have the talent advantage, but the Cavs have the best player. Which will be the difference-maker?
5. Doing it on the road — The Celtics were the best road team in the NBA this season but they were 0-2 in Cleveland 0-3 in Atlanta in the first round. The Cavs were in the middle of the pack on the road during the regular season and lost twice in Boston. But they have won 10 times on the road in the playoffs over the last three years. Whichever team can score a road victory will have a huge edge in the series.
Matchups
Point guards
Delonte West
6-3, 180, 4th season
Postseason: 10.2 ppg, 5.0 apg
vs. Celtics: 20.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg
Comment: Former Celtic who was well-liked but injury prone in Boston. Has been inconsistent since he’s been a starter with the Cavs which showed in the Wizards series. Big challenge will be to keep Celtics guards in front of him. Shot 50 percent on 3-pointers against Washington.
Rajon Rondo
6-1, 170, 2nd season
Postseason 11.6 ppg, 7.3 apg
vs. Cavs: 10.8 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 4.3 apg
Comment: Developed a great deal this season and is a excellent distributor. Against the Hawks he had 51 assists and just seven turnovers. Will pressure the ball on defense. Not a strong jump shooter.
Edge: Celtics
Shooting guards
Wally Szczerbiak
6-7, 245, 9th season
Postseason: 10.8 ppg, 1.8 rpg
vs. Celtics: 12.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg
Comment: Has been in a shooting slump since coming to the Cavs, though he may have had a breakout game with 26 points in Game 6 vs. Wizards. Big challenge for him will be keeping up with Allen as he crosses the court and gets screens for 3-pointers.
Ray Allen
6-5, 205, 12th season
Postseason: 16.1 ppg, 3.1 apg
vs. Cavs: 23.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg
Comment: Shot just 42 percent vs. the Hawks and was spotty with his production. He is a serious threat against the Cavs because he often operates on the backside of the defense where the Cavs will often gamble and leave him.
Edge: Celtics
Small forwards
LeBron James
6-8, 250, fifth season
Postseason: 29.8 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 7.7 apg
vs. Celtics: 32.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 9.7 apg
Comments: He has thrived against the Celtics in the recent past, especially when playing at home. His challenge will be to react properly to the double teams and look to make the correct passes as the Celtics will try to bait him into turnovers. Will be challenged defensively guarding either Pierce or Allen.
Paul Pierce
6-7, 235, 10th season
Postseason: 18.0 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 4.7 apg
vs. Cavs: 13.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.0 apg
Comment: Dynamic scorer who can run very hot and cold from the field. He will often settle for jumpers but is very skilled at creating his own shot and getting inside and drawing fouls when he feels like it. He sometimes gets personally involved in rivalry with James.
Edge: Cavs
Power forwards
Ben Wallace
6-9, 240, 12th season
Postseason: 3.2 ppg, 7.2 rpg
vs. Celtics: 6.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg
Comment: With his back healthy, Wallace seems to be jumping several inches higher and being more active on both ends over the last two weeks. His challenge will be to deal with Garnett when he leaves the post area and pulls him from the basket and keeping him off the boards.
Kevin Garnett
6-11, 220, 13th season
Postseason: 21.0 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 3.9 apg
vs. Cavs: 15.3 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 4.3 apg
Comment: Has been the emotional leader of the team and plays the role well. Is the defensive captain and will often run the offense from the post on offense. He will look to set up other teammates first but can score from anywhere on the floor and is long enough and quick enough to impact numerous plays at the defensive end.
Edge: Celtics
Centers
Zydrunas Ilgauskas
7-3, 260, 10th season
Postseason: 14.5 ppg, 7.3 rpg
vs. Celtics: 14.0 ppg, 12.5 rpg
Comment: Has been very solid in the postseason over the last few years because he’s difficult to guard and is an excellent offensive rebounder. His challenge will not be to allow Perkins easy baskets and putbacks on the weakside, where he thrives opposite Garnett.
Kendrick Perkins
6-10, 265, 5th season
Postseason: 7.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg
vs. Cavs: 8.8 rpg, 4.5 rpg
Comment: Has improved but is still the weak link for Boston in the starting lineup. He’s foul prone and get out of position too much. However he’s a developing shot blocker and often benefits from having little attention paid to him.
Edge: Cavs.
Bench
Cavs: G Devin Brown, G Daniel Gibson, F/C Anderson Varejao, F Joe Smith, G Sasha Pavlovic.
Comment: Smith and Gibson both played excellent minutes against the Wizards with Gibson showing his best shooting touch. Varejao rebounded well but both he and Brown suffered at the offensive end. Pavlovic is just coming back from injury and his minutes may be limited.
Celtics: F James Posey, G Sam Cassell, F/C P.J. Brown F Leon Powe, G Eddie House, F Glen Davis, G Tony Allen.
Comment: Posey is a strong defender and good 3-pointer shooter and Cassell is veteran leader. Powe and Davis are energy players who can change the game. House is a gunner who has a history of success against the Cavs.
Edge: Celtics
Coaches
Cavs: Mike Brown, third season, 145-101 regular season, 23-16 postseason.
Comment: He is one of the best defensive coaches in the NBA and is in the second round for the eighth consecutive season as a coach. He’s got a 5-2 series record as the Cavs’ head man and has shown he can make excellent adjustments between games in a series.
Celtics: Doc River, seventh season, 339-328 regular season, 12-17 postseason.
Comment: He’s a good motivator who has successfully developed a deep and sound rotation that maximizes his team’s talents during the season. However, he’s only won one playoff series and his moves in close games against the Hawks did not pay off.
Edge: Cavs.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:54 am
[...] Mike Greenberg’s Fan Site wrote an interesting post today on Breaking down the series with CelticsHere’s a quick excerptBreaking down the series with Celtics May 6th, 2008 Five keys to victory 1. Make it a game or make it a blowout — The Celtics spent most of the season routing teams, especially on their home floor. They beat the Hawks by an average of 25 points at home in the first round. The Cavs, meanwhile, played close games the entire season. They were actually outscored by their opponents over the 82 games, yet still were eight games over .500. The Celtics did not respond well in the close games in the [...]
May 6th, 2008 at 10:55 am
Uhh … lots of who has the edges with lots of pointing out the patently obvious, but come on. You conveniently evaded putting yourself on the spot, readers want to know your prediction for the series. What is it?
May 6th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Hey Papa Johns - Lebron fans are ubiquitous - they are national and international. 23 cent pizza may placate a few pizza-lovers in the cleve, but since I live where there are no papa johns (thank god) I’m still offended. You’ll always be the company with poor taste to me. I get subjected to your bowl game each year and have to watch papa john on screen every two minutes talking about what a success he is and shamelesslessly peddling his wares, and since it’s usually teams like Oberlin vs Hawaii Community College, it seems like your bowl should be among the first to go. It’s like a 4 hour long papa john commercial. WOW papa john is so great! what a success! I’m going to the young republican club to meet with papa john. WE don’t need 99 bowl games or your tactless marketing.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:03 am
[...] bwindhorst wrote an interesting post today on Breaking down the series with CelticsHere’s a quick excerptMake it a game or make it a blowout — The Celtics spent most of the season routing teams, especially on their home floor. They beat the Hawks by an average of 25 points at home in the first round. The Cavs, meanwhile, played close games … [...]
May 6th, 2008 at 11:15 am
This is what we’ve been waiting for. Time for Lebron to show the world that he is not the fifth best player in the league, last year was not a fluke or lucky draw, the Cavs shouldn’t be ranked below Atlanta and Philly and every West team by ESPN - it’s time for vengeance. It’s time to show these puking pundits just how stupid many of them really are. It’s statement time, and I think his boys are onboard too. Witness.
Somehow the Cavs have flown in here under the radar, and become the super-underdogs. Lebron is 5th best? Bring it. When KG hits lebron (oh, he will!)and body slams the ref, I hope Big Ben lays him out.
Sorry NBA darling Celtics, just because you have one talented, spastic maniac with an inferiority complex and anger management issues, and some nice role players, mostly past their prime and never really successful in the playoffs, doesn’t mean shit. you are about to be ‘Broned.
Cavs in 5 or 6. Witness bitches!
I stopped eating Papa Johns during the bowl game a few years ago. Is it a football game or a hours-long soapbox for papa john to talk about how wonderful he is? I don’t remember who played, but I remember that douche popping up every two minutes with his logo everywhere.
I remember my OSU national champs shirt had a ‘tostitos’ logo bigger than the OSU logo. what’s up with that? I hate these corporate names on stadiums and bowls and stuff, but papa johns is among the most annoying
May 6th, 2008 at 11:29 am
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=jackson/080505&sportCat=nba
Here’s the link to some big expert from espn. He says KG knows that this is his first real chance to win, usually he cries when he doesn’t. I guess that’s why he acted the way he did when they beat atlanta, that old inferiority complex. That’s why he gonna hack lebron as often and as hard as he can, too.
First chance to win? As I remember it, Minnesota was in the playoffs year after year after year. You’re in, you have a chance to win. Ask Golden State, last years Cavs, hell, ask the Hawks. Ask anyone but these pundits who pick the two top seeds every year.
This guys article speaks of ‘mystique’ and crazy shit like that. It’s a semantic battle that has already been lost, yet he carries on pathetically. Sounds like he’s already given up on his darlings.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:46 am
How can anyone look at the Celtics series with the Hawks and think that the Cavaliers will beat Boston? The Hawks are an athletic team, the Cavs are not. Lebron’s so-called help will only be able to help if the Celtics play defense like Washington. And that’s not going to happen. Celtics in five
May 6th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2007/news/story?page=Experts-EastChamps
Here’s a link to our preseason predictions. 8 of us picked Chicago to win the East, 6 Detroit, 4 Boston. I stand my my pick of Chicago even though I love Boston so much I want to marry it.
San Antonio, Phoenix, Houston, and Dallas were our most popular picks. Being typical, I went for the safe bet: SA. They are the only ones left now, albeit down 2-0. I again stand by my selection, even though Kobe makes me all warm and giddy inside. I think I love him. Serious.
This Eric guy cracks me up. Lebron’s not athletic, and we should play defense like Washington? How did that work out for the Wiz, buddy? Well, your ridiculousness nonwithstanding, you’ve done better than me, because I picked Chicago to win it all. But I am the typical sports writer, not you, so I get to say what everyone else is saying, not you!
The Big 3 will not wear down vs the Cavs. The Cavs are horrible, a 16th-ranked team led by the fifth best player in the league. So Z, Big Ben, Lebron and even Boobie all have more playoff wins than the big 3 combined. Who cares, the Cavs suck and Lebron is barely any good. The Celts should win in 4, and then marry me.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Nah, Eric. Celtics in 6 or 7, not 5. Sure, the Cavs are filled with inconsistent stiffs, but James is way too much. Z would be in the D-League if not for James, but as long as James is on the court, Ilgauskas and everybody else has plenty of room and plenty of time to shoot. Don’t discount Cleveland, particularly at home.
With that being said, don’t forget to bet the Celtics tonight, folks. The line opened at 10, it’s now down to a sexy 9.5. Take all the money out of your 401(k), rob a bank, rob a liquor store, rob your grandmother. Bet it all, you won’t regret it. But if I’m wrong, please don’t sue me.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
LOL Alan T. Way to call BW out.
I had a friend in Colorado who was a Red Wings fan. He’d wear his Detroit jersey to the games when they’d play the Avs in the playoffs, but he would leave his jacket on until Detroit victory was assured! Cowardly, but similar to what your saying, no?
Cavs in 5 or 6, with a win tonight.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
Jay Z? Soulja Boy? Isn’t this kinda like Bird and AC Green comparing themselves to Bryan Adams and Def Leppard? Whitesnake v Whitney? Boy George v Cyndi Lauper? It’s weird.
De La Soul, to name one group, is way more creative and talented than anyone listed above, though I do like the tune ‘99 problems’. It’s hilarious to hear these sports writers talk about Jay Z like he’s the most original artist on the planet. Hilarious, and sad. Ok, mostly sad.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
The Atlanta Hawks , as a professional team of NBA, is one of the major teams that has fans all around the world. It is quite normal if Atlanta Hawks tickets are so pricy or hard to find because such great teams tickets worth any price. It doesn’t matter if we pay a respected price for Hawks tickets because we satisfy our eagerness to watch good games and more than that when we go to watch a game it’s because we love this team and we shouldn’t be mean.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
Cavs in 6. They win tonight and Alan T. is broke tomorrow.
I would give the edge to the Cavs bench over Celtics bench, but agree with the rest of Windhorst’ edges in the matchups.
But good call Alan, it was lame of Brian not to offer his series prediction.
May 6th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
celts in 6. cavs have the talent and the ability but inconsistent play coupled with poor coaching is going to do them in.
May 6th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
Excellent analysis Mr. Windhorst.
May 6th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
A couple of thoughts:
- I think Brian might be overestimating Rondo. Yes, he can cause havoc because he can get to the hoop, and after watching our point guards have trouble keeping the Wizards out of the paint, it’s definitely a cause for concern. But anytime he shoots more than 10 shots, he misses a bunch of them. I’d call this one a draw. Both Rondo and West could come through, or they could be non-existent, and they’ll probably take turns being a bit of each throughout the series.
- I wouldn’t be surprised if Mike Brown again tries to see what Wally can give them early, much like he used to do with Z. If Wally can contribute offensively, you’ll take his problems on defense. But if he can’t, then I’d expect the Cavs to go small a lot, putting West on Allen and putting Gibson on Rondo.
- I’m worried about Wallace’s ability to keep Garnett off the boards. Antawn Jamison was all over the glass during the Wizards series, and he’s nowhere near the rebounder that KG is.
- Despite all the wins the Celtics piled up, they aren’t a great offensive team, and they have no post presence. They are solely a perimeter team, and I expect the Mike Brown and the Cavs to put pressure on them to make jump shots. And they might, they have very good shooters. But the Celtics aren’t likely to run away from the Cavs offensively, so the Cavs might be able to take a punch or two and still have a shot to climb back in to the game. That gives the Cavs an advantage, because if things are tight in the 4th Quarter, the Celtics don’t have the go-to scorer to carry them through.
- Brian is absolutely right that Mike Brown is the better coach (though he will always do things that drive you crazy). Brown has outcoached Flip Saunders, Lawrence Frank and Eddie Jordan in his short career, and he will certainly school Doc “I can’t beat the Hawks on the road” Rivers.
- I don’t like the Cavs’ chances tonight. The Celtics and their fans will be running high on emotion, and I’m not sure that LeBron’s supporting cast will rise to the occasion. And I don’t like the Cavs’ chances if the series goes 7. So I guess I’m taking them in 6.
Go Cavs.
Mike C.
May 6th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Windhorst picks Celtics in 7
On todays ESPN NBA Daily dish.. Brian and Chad talked about the series.
Brian picked the celtics in 7.
Last time one of our own beat writers picked the cavs to lose (terry pluto picked the cavs to lose in 2006 to the wizards in 6) LeBron took that very personal and was VERY mad that one of the cavs beat writers picked againts them.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:58 pm
[...] John Havlicek, Larry Bird, Kevin McHale …Chronicle-Telegram - http://www.chroniclet.com|||Breaking down the series with CelticsFor the Cavs, this means where LeBron James is. For the Celtics, this is where Paul Pierce and Kevin [...]
May 7th, 2008 at 1:48 am
[...] Z, foul on the deck, good foul to draw. …nbaroundtable - http://nbaroundtable.wordpress.com|||Breaking down the series with CelticsFor the Cavs, this means where LeBron James is. For the Celtics, this is where Paul Pierce and Kevin [...]
May 7th, 2008 at 5:35 am
[...] Brian Windhorst of the Akron Beacon-Journal on why the Cavaliers badly hope to find themselves in close contests against the Celtics: “The Celtics spent most of the season routing teams, especially on their home floor. They beat the Hawks by an average of 25 points at home in the first round. The Cavs, meanwhile, played close games the entire season. They were actually outscored by their opponents over the 82 games, yet still were eight games over .500. The Celtics did not respond well in the close games in the Hawks series and there is a question as to whether their players are conditioned after taking so many fourth quarters off.” [...]
May 7th, 2008 at 5:35 am
[...] Brian Windhorst of the Akron Beacon-Journal on why the Cavaliers badly hope to find themselves in close contests against the Celtics: “The Celtics spent most of the season routing teams, especially on their home floor. They beat the Hawks by an average of 25 points at home in the first round. The Cavs, meanwhile, played close games the entire season. They were actually outscored by their opponents over the 82 games, yet still were eight games over .500. The Celtics did not respond well in the close games in the Hawks series and there is a question as to whether their players are conditioned after taking so many fourth quarters off.” [...]
May 13th, 2008 at 2:05 am
[...] Hype Guy. Anyone else catch what CP3 said to West after getting T-ed up for taunting? (PG-13) 9th: Akron Beacon Journal. Brian Windhorst breaks down the five keys to a Cavaliers’ series victory.10th: Detroit Free [...]
May 13th, 2008 at 2:05 am
[...] Hype Guy. Anyone else catch what CP3 said to West after getting T-ed up for taunting? (PG-13) 9th: Akron Beacon Journal. Brian Windhorst breaks down the five keys to a Cavaliers’ series victory.10th: Detroit Free [...]