There will be pain. Now what about gain?
Posted May 21st, 2007 by bwindhorst
Auburn Hills, Mich. — You need to prepare your living room. Move the valuable glass stuff, put the remote on a short leash so it can’t hit the screen, send the dogs and cats out of the room. If you’re a Cavs fan, the Pistons are going to make you yell and steam about your team. Take it like an educated fan.
Let’s all be honest here, the Pistons are better than the Cavs. They are more experienced than the Cavs. They are tougher than the Cavs. They should win the Eastern Conference Finals. That doesn’t mean they will, but you can bet they will spend a lot of time making the Cavs look like a flawed contender. It’s OK, they are a flawed contender. But don’t make the mistake of thinking this is meaningless.
As I wrote about for the paper today, this series is all about the Cavs cutting their teeth. As Henry Hill said in Goodfellas: "The way I see it, everyone’s gotta take a beating sometime." This is the next step on the road the Cavs believe will lead to a championship. For the Pistons, this very well may been their last gasp at one and the difference in the desperation will show. Last year the Cavs finished 14 games behind the Pistons. This year they finished three. The Pistons’ core, with the exception of Tayshaun Prince, are reaching the end of their primes and two starters are free agents. The trend is obvious, but this is the present, not the future.
So the Cavs are going to look ugly in this series, the Pistons will make their lack of a true point guard and their offensive schematic issues a pinch point. Zydrunas Ilgauskas will at times look weak, Drew Gooden look spacey, LeBron James look passive, Larry Hughes look way too brazen, Sasha Pavlovic look foolhardy, Anderson Varejao look like he’s never played the game before, Eric Snow look like a shot putter, and Daniel Gibson look like a rookie. And they’ll do it with Mace cackling away on the P.A. and Rasheed Wallace skipping and doing his antics while Charles Barkley rips away at halftime.
Very few, it seems, respect the Cavs. The media doesn’t vote for them for awards, their opponents don’t really respect them. Trust me, last year the Washington Wizards went away convinced they were the better team and right now, to a man, the Nets think they’re better, too. Even the Pistons, no matter what they say to the media, don’t really respect the Cavs. They blame last year on themselves, they give little credit to the opponent.
Maybe it’s because there’s a backlash at all the attention paid to James. It’s understandable, the same things happened in high school. Lots of people on his own state, hell, his own hometown, hated him and all he stood for…until he became a Cav and it became OK for him to have a Hummer and OK for everyone to cheer for him.
Don’t be suckered in. The Cavs are going to be growing up in the next two weeks. If they are slapped, it will only make them, and James, hungrier. If they smell blood, it will only make them more dangerous. This is the way it is in basketball on all levels, you grow, take your lumps, and grow some more. After watching James and his teams steadily move up the ladder on each level and his dominance expand for the last eight years, I have learned one thing: Don’t ever underestimate him because he’ll prove you wrong.
To quote another famous movie line, 30 years old this summer, from Obi Wan Kenobi: "If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine."
May 21st, 2007 at 5:49 am
I’m not sure the Cavs are underrated by the national media; the team is not well-liked because they have a great talent but have chosen to play a boring brand of basketball.
But I think the Pistons are overrated. When they’re rolling, they look unbeatable. Once their cage gets rattled, not so much. If the Cavs play rough on defense and drive to the hoop on the other end, they have a decent chance.
May 21st, 2007 at 5:56 am
Perfeect take. I, for one, will take the Cavs in 6, though it seems fool-hardy. I think Mike Brown learned something in the New Jersey series and I think we are going to see someone unexpected step up.
For me, Sasha is the x-factor. He was nothing more than a bench guy last season. If Pavs can hit some shots and remain aggressive, and play the type of D he played against Carter for the most part, the Cavs will be right there every game.
At some point, all the basketball the Pistons have played the last 5 years is going to take it’s toll…
FTS
http://www.fearthesword.com
May 21st, 2007 at 6:49 am
To me Sasha has always been the x-factor, but he has to get more aggressive and less passive, and by any chance that Sasha does not step it up in this series, D Ferry, should not resign him. I have a slight feeling that the Cavs will win, maybe the feeling that I have is a fever, or maybe a ear ache, but I still think they can pull this out. What ever the case may be I do not under any circumstance want Loser Boozer to go to the title game before the Icon, not that I really care, but just a little side bar to keep me going. In BW above blog all the descriptive adjective he used for the cavs players, happens without them playing the Pistons, so if anything I am looking for some improvement. Another X-factor is the play of young Dan, If he could some how stay aggressive and look for his shot instead of passing the ball it could really open things up, and his shot do not aways have to be a three. Heres hoping that coach Brown decide to let DJ, get some meaningful playing time, it was against the pistons, that won him this stupid Phat contract from D Ferry. Maybe DJ can have dejavue. I do believe that a good seven game series will do the Icon some good, help build him some backbone for next year playoffs. Larry, you are the pt. guard so your job is to create, not shoot 20 times, leave that to Sasha, Icon, Z, and the other players. Its going to be a good series. and I think we will win it in seven games. with or without a conspiricy.
May 21st, 2007 at 6:54 am
Corn twister head, donyell is also an x-factor, I know he is not going to be as hot as he was the other game, but 15 pts of the bench is not too much to ask for a guy who is making 5 to7 million a year. I hope that coach Brown plays chicken hawk head, as well as dress shannon Brown, they have nothing to lose by doing both.
May 21st, 2007 at 7:00 am
In order of any inside game to work Z is have to get over his busted head and get the fear of Rasheed out of Him. Come on Z you grew up in a war torn country, don’t let a sucker like Rasheed make you nervous. And please Icon drive the ball to the basket, post up Tyshun, and stop dribbling the ball at the three pt line with 5 seconds on the shot, and please get rid of the ball when you see the double team coming, do not wait for them to pounce on you. And if by chance he does wait for them to pounce on him some one please go get the ball, do not stand in your desinated spot waiting for the pass, take the lead and go get the ball.
May 21st, 2007 at 7:12 am
Brian, good thing you weren’t alive and writing for the paper in 1976, because I think you would have have literally imploded. Hyperbole rocks, dude.
You really need to begin quoting from the one movie which really applies. I can’t recall the exact wording of that Plain Dealer sportswriter, the late great David St. Hubbins, but he wrote something to the effect of, “Dozens of people spontaneously combust each year. It’s just not really widely reported.” Great stuff.
I’m now actually rooting for the Cavs to beat the Pistons. I was really hoping they’d lose early and often. That way, Ferry would be compelled to do something serious that doesn’t otherwise involve egregious ignorance and incredible stupidity.
But the point is now moot. The sportswriters have already testified it’s a mortal lock they’ll be curled up in Ferry’s lap this summer. The damage has been done, fans are now doomed to No-Doz their way through 2010, so what the hell. Go Cavs, I guess.
I miss the Cleveland Rockers.
May 21st, 2007 at 7:28 am
by far one of the most insightful, well-presented blog posts ever by BW. kudos.
May 21st, 2007 at 7:29 am
I like this post - more than most most. I propose a toast, to my man, Brian Windho(r)st.
GO CAVS!
May 21st, 2007 at 7:35 am
Didn’t the Cavs take the Pistons all the way to game 7 last year? Now the Pistons have no Ben Wallace and the Cavs have Larry Hughes (who they didn’t have last year vs. Detroit) and Sasha Pavlovic (who hardly played last year). Like you said, the Pistons only finished 3 games ahead of the Cavs (vs. 17 last year). Yet everyone is ignoring these facts!
I’m not saying that the Cavs are going to win, but I’m just saying that they’re not going to be a pushover like it appears to be to everyone on paper.
May 21st, 2007 at 7:44 am
Tom and kj: “You can’t really dust for vomit.”
May 21st, 2007 at 7:47 am
Yell, Damon and Gibson are the X-Factors in this series. SOMEBODY has to step-up and hit the outside shot consistently out of this group or we are done in 5 or 6 games.
May 21st, 2007 at 7:48 am
Excellent post. I’m a long time Pistons fan who lives in Ohio and is also a realist and knows that the Cavs (with a properly managed personal) will soon be the class on the division and the East. I’ve got to take the Pistons here for all the reasons you mention (in 6 by the way…I figure Lebron will win 2 on his own) but it’s basically win win for the Cavs. Either take out a veteran rival on your way to the championship or get some quality playoff experience. Baby steps, Lebron. You’re a young dude. Don’t worry, you’ll be rolling in championships by the time your 25.
May 21st, 2007 at 8:35 am
What a great post B-Dub!
You took what everybody already knows, that the CAVS are flawed, and reminded everyone that’s so freakin’ negative about these CAVS that there’s a lot to look forward to. The fact that LeBron never has taken baby steps, he’s always lived up to the hype, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t continue to get better overshadows all the bs people have been saying.
Yes, the CAVS are horribly flawed, but LeBron is a beast. Let’s hope the Pistons finally bring out his claws and fangs and give us all something worth watching.
May 21st, 2007 at 9:33 am
If the Pistons didn,t have Prince I would
say Cavs in six. Rasheed can’t hit the
three anymore and Webber is washed up.
Saunders is intelligent however and will
devise schemes that will befuddle the slow
to react MPH. Billups will make Hughes look
foolish and if Z chokes on Sheeds sneakers
it will be a short series.
May 21st, 2007 at 9:39 am
I hate to interrupt the BW love-in, but what’s so great about throwing in the towel before the series even starts? How are fans supposed to relish the next week or two when the games have already been decided?
Pluto likes to tell everyone how misguided the fans are, while BW blows smoke about being objective, but all this crap about being happy with the season before it’s done is pretty defeatist and typical: We should be happy to get to the conference finals, Cleveland’s lucky to have someone like Kuiper at second, etc., etc.–I’ve been reading it all my life.
May 21st, 2007 at 9:44 am
Detroit allowed only 51.3% shooting on “close” range (non-jump) shots this year. They were #3 in the NBA behind Houston and Chicago. The league median was 55.7%.
This means for the Cavs to win they must excel at what they usually don’t: outside shooting. If they wait to shoot long enough for Z, Gooden, Varejao, Marshall, etc. to get in position for the offensive rebound, they’ll have a chance. Detroit was the #25 defensive rebounding team this year (70.8%).
Meanwhile, Cleveland allowed opponents 57.2% on “close” range shots, ranking them at #21. So Detroit can probably look to the Nets series for a winning game plan on offense:
As the Cavs rightly pay so much attention to the guards, look for easy interior shots for Prince and Webber, much as NJ did with Mikki Moore.
Even more than it was for NJ, that’s a big change from Detroit’s usual game plan, so hopefully they shy away from it.
May 21st, 2007 at 9:53 am
larry, i think you and i read this post differently. i fully expect trhe cavs to WIN the series. i am a fan and a realist, something the plutos and the windhorsts of the world USUALLY deride or at the very least, think are two incompatible positions to have. however, i think the tenor and jist of BW’s blog post was quite accurate and good. maybe i should’ve said (originally) in reference to his usual dour predictions cloaked in the guise of “realism” on this blog.
so, let me say, for a “realist,” BW’s blog post WAS thoughful and insightful. do you see what i mean, larry?
May 21st, 2007 at 10:01 am
Nice post, realistic yet positive. Ten things that will happen in the series:
1. Larry Hughes will play better.
2. Rasheed Wallace will dagger the Cavs with critical 3’s.
3. The Cavs will win at least one game in Detroit.
4. Mike Brown will not panic.
5. The decibel level in Cleveland will surprise the Pistons (and the Cavs).
6. The Cavs will have a + differential with Eric Snow on the floor.
7. “Sashay” Pavlovic will defend (most of the time).
8. Detroit will win at least one game in Cleveland.
9. Rasheed and Varejao will tussle.
10. Lebron will take it up another notch.
This has the makings of a classic series. I can’t wait.
May 21st, 2007 at 10:04 am
Stupid, could you please tell us once again how Damon got his “phat” contract? I don’t think you’ve mentioned it quite enough. You are right about Sasha though–he finishes worse than a premature ejaculator. As for BW’s post, “It kind of puts things in perspective…too much perspective.”
May 21st, 2007 at 10:54 am
Like someone said earlier….Win-Win situation for the Cavs….
Lost the series, and they were supposed to lose. Win, and it’s the coronation of the King.
I am eager to see how the Cavs do, win or lose. We should be all finished with the type of stinkers we saw in Game 5 against the Nets.
I look for a strong effort tonight. The Cavs are 0-11 on the road in series openers….It has to end sometime, right?
FTS
http://www.fearthesword.com
May 21st, 2007 at 12:16 pm
Boy I tell ya, you know a Cleveland fan when you hear someone talk. A Cleveland fan will argue something outrageous in a minute. Mike Brown horrible coach for cavs demands nothing from Lebron, Sasha not a factor in this series one good series and he is the savior. Cleveland will not be able to sit in the paint on D this series like they have coasted and done this entire playoffs. The Detroit Bigs will stretch the D and open up the lanes. Pistons in 5, just watch!
May 21st, 2007 at 12:31 pm
Another thing people forget about is though Detroit took a little step backwards getting rid of Ben Wallace, he was a huge liability on offence which caused problems last year. Look at Chicago Bulls on offense you only have 4 potential scorers which is why Detroit killed them. Same will happen to Cleveland, Detroit is much better on offense this year with C-Web at center because he can score in the paint, so can McDyess.
May 21st, 2007 at 1:10 pm
C-Web’s stats don’t prove your point, Mike. Research before you state “facts”: 2006 Playoff stats for Wallace - 4.7 pts, 1.7 assts., 10.5 reb., 1.2 blks.
2007 Playoff stats for Webber - 8.9 pts., 1.5 assts., 6.6 reb., .7 blks.
Don’t see a tremendous difference.
May 21st, 2007 at 2:59 pm
KJ:
Maybe I did read the post too negatively, but it seems to fit in with the usual dour prediction cloaked in the guise of realism, as you put it. Why start waiting on the future when the Eastern Conference finals start tonight?
That perspective grates on me especially because it assumes the team’s management is on the right track and takes the GM’s feet out of the fire. There’s no guarantee this team will get better next year: injuries happen, guys get older, young players start believing their press clippings, etc. Just look at the Tribe of two years ago.
I’m not sold on the Pistons as a great team and think the Cavs have a very good opportunity before them, this season. I don’t like to be told to limit my expectations by a couple objective realists who think Eric Snow is a good player and Z is a top five center.
May 21st, 2007 at 6:35 pm
Man - did u hear the TNT halftime crew?
“Detroit doesn’t respect Cleveland. They’re just going through the motions right now. This crowd doesn’t respect Cleveland.”
They didn’t say one good thing about the Cavs at halftime. Brian’s absolutely right - no one respects the Cavs. I guess I’ll just block everyone else out and enjoy the ride.
May 21st, 2007 at 6:49 pm
Cavs are doing everything they need to be doing. Pistons are coasting. And I am SO glad Alan is rooting for the Cavs, because that’s what a Cavs fan should do. Go Z and his 9 first-half rebounds!!
May 21st, 2007 at 7:11 pm
Man what does James have to do to GET a CALL?! I mean he’s not getting mauled, but come on - if this was D-Wade every single time he went to the hole it’d be a foul. The next person that mentions “star treatment” about LeBron is going to get a flagrant 2 by me.
May 21st, 2007 at 7:13 pm
ok, i’m about to turn this damn game off…if LBJ can’t get a call when hamilton TRIED to foul him…well, count me out.
this is so ridiculous…how does a guy who avg. almost 11 FT attempts a game in the playoffs have NONE so far??
yeah, please tell me about how LBJ get’s superstar calls. go on, pleaese…
i fully expect to read absolutely NOTHING about the horrible officiating tomorrow…
May 21st, 2007 at 7:44 pm
We don’t get any calls - and now the Pistons can’t miss a shot.
May 21st, 2007 at 7:51 pm
I am so angry right now. We just can’t ever get any breaks. No breaks. The Cavs don’t get breaks. I can’t believe this. No calls the entire game, and we’re going to lose by 4.
May 21st, 2007 at 8:13 pm
if donyell would of made the shot, we would not have been saying this, but next time LEBRON DUNK THE DAMN BALL
May 21st, 2007 at 8:37 pm
your wrong, “stupid,” that was the right play to make. i don’t think going into overtime at detriot would’ve helped us much at all, to be honest. going for the win there was the absolute right play. you wanna win that on the road. shock ‘em and steal one at their place.
but all of this is moot as LBJ DID NOT GET TO THE FT LINE AT ALL! even the TNT guys on TWO different plays wondered aloud how LBJ didn’t get a call.
again, i expect to READ nothing about this issue in my local paper tomorrow morning. after all, if one points out a FACT like that, one is accused by the Wise Men of Cleveland Sports (COPYRIGHT CONTROL) of “whining.”
May 21st, 2007 at 8:41 pm
“The Cavs don’t get breaks”?
Really. Tied game, seconds left, and King James in the paint puts the game on Donyell Marshall’s shoulders?
Lebron doesn’t get it done. Last year he didn’t perform in the clutch. I guess this year he’ll force his teammates to try.
The Pistons played horribly. And still won…
May 21st, 2007 at 8:57 pm
You’re right pablo - but the Cavs played great and lost right? I’m sick of trying to be an “intelligent fan”.
May 21st, 2007 at 8:59 pm
I say the Cavs took a 35%-40% shot at winning game one on the road in regulation versus a 25% shot at persevering in OT, assuming that LBJ makes the 2 pointer. Which is why Hamilton said”That’s a play we didn’t want to happen.”
May 21st, 2007 at 9:16 pm
kj - I like you and all, but SHUT YOUR YAPPER.
http://www.ohio.com/mld/ohio/news/breaking_news/17260988.htm
“Most telling was James, who had been averaging 10 trips to the foul line in the playoffs, did not draw a shooting foul all night. In fact, dating to the Nets series, James hasn’t been to the foul line in seven quarters.”
I don’t get why you thought that wasn’t going to be in there.
May 21st, 2007 at 9:31 pm
1/10 from 3 point range is not gonna get. But beside that…LBJ with 0 free throw attempts?! C’mon…so much for Sheed’s comments about his love fouls. I guess that worked.
May 22nd, 2007 at 12:25 am
SEE, this is what seperates Lebron, from Mcgrady, wade, kobe, and others, his refusal to get agressive at the end and do what it takes to win. if he would of slam the ball he would of got fouled, he always talk about its not about the numbers when he know deep in his heart he cares about the numbers because its the numbers that make a player what they are. He could play that team player role if he want, but if he ever going to get this team to the next level he need to get a little selfish and put the team on his broad shoulders. Its know excuse for them to lose that game last night. and they need to take the next game or else this is going to be a quick series. Charles barkley told rasheed after the game that the pistons played lousy in the first half instead of saying the cavs played great defense, but rasheed, like he should of did, gave the credit to the cavs defense. barkley has know love for the cavs. I said it before and I say it again, if sasha do not step up in this series he do not need to be resign. Also did you see brown rip sasha another ahole for letting billups shoot that open three. wow I never seen him yelled at his other players like that. i believe sasha is going to retreat to his shell after verbal tongue lashing. Im talking about the same shell that silas had him go in. do not be surprise if sasha do not score another pt in this series.
May 22nd, 2007 at 6:42 am
harry, contrary to what you may think, your quote of the article PROVES my point rather than disproves it! i said there would be no mention of the NO-CALLS, not the fact that LBJ didn’t get to the line! of course i knew that would be mentioned! and i also KNEW that there would be NO mention of the bad officiating that lead to LBJ not getting to the line!! funny, coach brown mentioned it in his post game press conference. funny too, that during the game on TWO different occasions the TNT color men wondered how LBJ didn’t get calls. now, if one watches enough of the national nba broadcasts, you know the TNT guys rarely mention the refs…