Prediction ‘06
Posted November 1st, 2006 by Brian Windhorst
I know everyone loves to forecast stuff at this time of year and sure it is fun to read about it and bicker. I did power rankings for the Beacon Journal’s preview section, which never made it online, but I ranked the Mavericks the best in the West, the Pistons the best in the East and the Cavs sixth overall.
Realistically, though, I can’t at this point say who my favorite is to win either side. There is too much parity at the top and too many unknowns, especially in the East. As for the individual awards, here’s my take, followed by my prediction for the Cavs.
Most Valuable Player: LeBron James. I voted for him last year and I see no reason why he shouldn’t be the favorite this year. Though I expect it to become an arm’s race with Kobe Bryant this year.
All-NBA Team: Kobe, LeBron, Dwyane Wade, Yao Ming, Dirk Nowitzki. This seems fairly standard to me.
Most Improved Player: Carmelo Anthony. He will make his first All-Star team and I believe the Nuggets will become one of the West’s best teams.
Sixth Man Award: Andres Nocioni. Anyone who reads this blog knows I love him as a player. I think the Bulls will be a great team and, if he remains as a reserve, he will share the credit.
Coach of Year: Don Nelson. Just watch him run his Warriors into one of the last playoff spots.
Rookie of the Year: Jorge Garbajosa. Who? Well, he plays for the Raptors and for the world champion Spanish national team. I doubt a foreigner who plays in Canada for a team that probably won’t make the playoffs will get enough headlines to actually win — Tyrus Thomas, Brandon Roy or Adam Morrison probably will — but I think he’s the most developed rookie at this point. So there.
Executive of Year: John Paxson. Yet another winner of this award will have to dedicate part of it to Isiah Thomas for what the Bulls VP did to him in the Eddy Curry trade, setting up this year’s haul.
Comeback Player of the Year: Dajuan Wagner. This award actually doesn’t exist in the NBA. But after everything he’s been through, I have to root for him.
Cavaliers: 52-30. Second in the Central Division, third in the East.
Yes the Cavs will be better, but I don’t think it will show much in the record. The East will be tougher across the board. The Cavs beat the Bulls four times last season, that won’t happen again. Plus the Raptors and Bobcats, teams the Cavs also swept, are going to be better as are the Orlando Magic, who the Cavs took three of four from in 05-06. There just won’t be that many easy wins out there.
My personal history is this: In 2003-04, I picked them to go 34-48 and they went 37-45. In 04-05, I picked 41-41 and they went 42-40. Last year I picked 47-35 and they went 50-32. So I have always slightly underestimated them.
Now, let me point out that the News-Herald’s Bob Finnan is king of this corner. He has correctly predicted the Cavs record three years in a row. Exactly. And so I will inform you he has slated them to go 57-25, tying a team record. Meanwhile Branson Wright of the Plain Dealer picked them to go 50-32 again.
Now what do you think? Let’s hear your predictions in the comments section.
November 1st, 2006 at 7:50 am
I like 57-25 - doesn’t that tie them with the 88-89 team for the franchise record, though?
Regardless, I think the Cavs are one of those teams that’s going to take the regular season super-seriously this year after what they learned in the Playoffs.
I also think LeBron will be openly gunning for the MVP, and that means winning the division.
November 1st, 2006 at 8:24 am
I am hoping for 57-25 which I believe would match the best Cav’s record ever.
My prediction is 51-31.
November 1st, 2006 at 8:33 am
Umm, how many e’s in undefeated?
November 1st, 2006 at 9:12 am
I see the Cavs going 55-27. I think that will be a record that could get them a second seed in the playoff brackets behind New Jersey, who will have the benefit of a weaker schedule. Although the Nets will have a better overall regular season record, I see the Cavs emerging as the top team in the conference. Then getting batted down by the best of the west in the finals.
But, I see this as the foundation year that we will eventually build our multiple championships on ….
I’d like to also state I’m usually seen as a pessimist by those around me. But, when looking at my history, I’ve usually been pretty close to the truth …
November 1st, 2006 at 10:27 am
I’m going with 54-28 ang getting the 3rd seed in the East, with a good chance of meeting Miami in the Eastern Finals, who I think will probably have the 4th seed. Miami will be coasting through the regular season, and I expect them to win the East come June. However, if either Shaq or Wade are banged up(a real possibility), and the Cavs have home court, they could very well be in the Finals. Detroit and Chicago might have a better regular season than the Cavs, but there in NO CHANCE that one of those teams will beat the Cavs in the playoffs. Reason: We have LeBron and they have no one close to his equal.
November 1st, 2006 at 10:35 am
i know its unfair since i’m putting this up after the 42 POINT loss of the Heat but i see the cavs SMOKING the heat in wins (they’re made for the playoffs) so why are we 3rd best in the East? the Nets? The only reason they’d come anywhere close is bc they’ll play that weak division to death, but even that’s not enough to have a better record. I think the Pistons are still an elite team but the playoffs showed they have holes and the loss of Wallace on a team that isn’t that deep means its a bumpy ride till the playoffs. the cavs have the depth and experience to take the NO. 1 seed. I think Brian’s POV that the raptors won’t make the playoffs, even though he puts the rookie of the year on a young and athletic team that can take advantage of the new offense-loving rules is off. for me, there’s four teams up for the last three playoff positions: Raps, Bucks, Magic, and the Wizards. And with the divisions they play in i’m going with the Bucks being the odd man out (the Pacers have a long road ahead if they even want to enter the picture).
oh, i think Brains right in his prediction that its going to be harder this year than last with teams getting better in the east BUT with the team knowing one another more this year AND the fact that all three of our new additions last year had an off one i’m thinking 56 wins and up.
November 1st, 2006 at 11:10 am
The Cavs set the franchise record with 57 wins in 1988-89 and tied it in 1991-92.
I’ll pick them for 54-28 and somewhere between first and third in the Central. With the new playoff seeding, your four East homecourt teams in the first round are going to be Miami, Detroit, Cleveland and Chicago.
November 1st, 2006 at 11:12 am
How can you not pick Steve Nash for your All-NBA team? He’s the 2-time defending MVP. Also, I think you greatly overrated Kobe. Remember, he’s coming off knee surgery. I don’t think he’ll be Lebron’s main competition for MVP.
Yao All-NBA? Not a chance
Also, not that he had a very bad year last year, but Vince Carter is going to be the most improved because he’s in a contract year. Simmons wrote something about this on espn.com, so you can read his piece. But the point is, everyone knows NBA players are notorious for playing at their absolute peak in contract years, and no one can turn it on and off like Vince.
So who are the Cavs going to finish behind in the Central? Please tell me you aren’t buying into the national media’s proclamation of the Bulls as the best team in the east. That’s absurd. They added Ben Wallace, who is old and can’t play offense, but still lack a go to guy on offense. They already had the best fg% allowed last year; the only thing missing for the Bulls was the offense and crunch time scoring.
November 1st, 2006 at 12:38 pm
The Cavs will start fast and confident, hit some doldrums at the first of the year then grind out 54 wins. Coach Brown figured out a good big man rotation in the playoffs and Gooden will improve with confidence from the new contract.
I’m hoping Larry Hughes will stay relatively healthy but other injuries will keep the team from hitting 60. They’ve been lucky with LeBron so far.
The Cavs could come out of the East simply because I can’t picture any eastern team being all that scary. Chicago won’t be the team to beat until Tyus Thomas can be a go-to guy, Miami seems pretty beat up to me and Jason Kidd is starting to wear down. Detroit lost their edge late last year and I’m not sure they have the coach to get it back.
A surprise team might be Indiana. Danny Granger looked like he could be a star last year, Harrington’s back and Jermaine O’Neal is due for a good year. They could have the best front line in the NBA.
November 1st, 2006 at 7:55 pm
LeBron will not and can not win the MVP if they only win 50 games. And how could you vote him MVP last year Brian, when CLEARLY Kobe had the better all-around season. First team all defense and LED the league in scoring by a landslide?!?!? That Laker team would have only won 10 games all year w/o him, while the Cavaliers had Zydrunas and Larry Hughes.
November 1st, 2006 at 10:34 pm
douglar, with all due respect, your argument is weak. hell, just look at what the lakers have done the last 2 nights! won without kobe. odom is superior to hughes, or at least has been up until this point. and ever hear of phil jackson? he might have a *little* bit to do with the lakers success.
and your argument loses further steam in that ilgauskas had a worse year than the previous year AND hughes missed half the season! did the lakers 2nd best player miss over half the season? umm, no.
and kobe is nowhere the leader LBJ became last year. the fact is that it is RIDICULOUS that LBJ wasn’t mvp last year, he carried a team with a rookie coach and almost zero talent to 50 wins! i firmly believe the only reason he didn’t win it was his age. the writers figured he would win plenty in his career and didn’t want to give him one at age 21.
November 2nd, 2006 at 7:12 am
Despite all my high expectations for the Cavs this year, I believe I am going to have a hard time watching the games. FSN needs Reghi. This new guy has as much flavor as a Saltine cracker. Reghi brought so much color and life to the game that it made even the worst games watchable. I like the idea of having the trio in the booth with AC and Williams. This 3 man booth would have been amazing with Reghi. I am horribly dissapointed with the move. Thank God for Joe Tait or I would just not care to experience the games.
November 2nd, 2006 at 9:07 am
i couldn’t disagree more. both my friend and i were commenting last night how refreshing it was to have a professional play-by-play guy who did NOT want to be the center of the telecast and let the COLOR men do the “color commentary!” that is how it should be. the play-by-play guy should be, for lack of a better term, bland, imho and let the analysts supply the color commentary.
reghi made it far too much about him and his vocabulary.
and boy, was AC great or what? he even made williams’ penchant for constantly praising the opposing teams players almost bearable.
November 2nd, 2006 at 11:57 am
I think that’s a pretty honest prediction of the Cavs. The East is vastly improved, on paper, over last season. What we don’t know is who will be the first star to go down. Let’s hope that bug stays away from the Cavs this season as much as possible.
I do see the Cavs over the Bulls this year even though Big Ben will do nicely in his defensive mind set. What the Bulls needed is someone to go to late in games that has that offensive mind set. Instead, they go for the best defender on a team loaded with good defenders. A team needs offenders too.
Therefore, the Cavs will come up 1st in the division, but probably 2nd in the conference, just under the Heat.
MVP, All NBA team and come back the same. ROY - Morrison, Most improved - Andre Iguodala (Scarey thought), Come Back POY (if there was one) Grant Hill (in order for Orlando to make the playoffs this has to happen) and Executive - Ferry (he’ll pull off another move after the all-star break that puts the Cavs over the top)
November 2nd, 2006 at 12:55 pm
I guess I’m missing something but I fail to understand why all these eastern teams are supposed to be so improved.
Toronto has Chris Bosh but I don’t see how a couple Euro-dudes and TJ Ford are going to make them that much better than they were last year.
Orlando will improve because of Howard, but like Toronto they’re relying on a young point guard who seems injury prone. It looks like Milicic couldn’t beat out Tony Battie and they’re also counting on Grant Hill again?
The Bobcats seem confused and are a power struggle waiting to happen. Boston seems pretty blah again, the Knicks are still dysfunctional and Atlanta is Atlanta.
Some of these teams will probably improve a little bit, but some will fall apart. All in all, there just aren’t that many free agents or rookies who can make a big difference year to year.
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:33 pm
KJ, I agree 100%. I miss Reghi terribly, he was the best. At least we still have Joe Tait.
I’m going to go out on a limb here…I think the Cavs are going to win slightly more games than last year, but this is how the season is going to progress. Nov, Dec - they are going to be about a .550 team with the easy schedule but are going to suffer some depressing losses to some good teams. They are going to shake up the lineup and try to find the best fit and during that time, they will be about a .500 team. At some point, LeBron will go into TAKEOVER mode and propell them to an impressive win streak. By seasons end, Z will be a non-factor (except against shaq) and Shannon Brown will be getting regular minutes. I do NOT think LeBron will win the MVP award because I believe his stats will decrease slightly this year. He will get less minutes and concentrate on getting other guys involved even more than last year. I expect a 28-8-6 season from LeBron and I think D-Wade will win the MVP simply because his support cast will be worse this year and he will be forced to carry a huge load (like LeBron did last year). I’m predicting 30-4-6 from Wade with a higher Shooting % than Bron Bron
Cavs will put it all together come playoff time and might even have pulled a trade at some point in the season. I like the Cavs for 54 wins and a Finals appearance.
And LeBron should have been MVP last year, without a doubt.
November 2nd, 2006 at 1:39 pm
I like John Hollinger’s logic and he has the Cavs winning 60 games. It’s just very hard for me as a diehard cleveland fan to get TOO excited before the season really gets going. The indians were supposed to be the team to beat this year….and look what happened
What I like: Hughes looks MUCH more confident handling the ball and he is FINISHING! (did u see that facial he had yesterday!)
What I don’t like: Z should be instantly benched every time he opts for the womanly tip in when his hand is already above the rim. THROW IT DOWN! Take a lesson from GOODEN for God’s sake. His post game is all but gone. He’s left with a 17 foot jump shot and those akward looking tip ins from around the hoop. Varajeo better start learning to make free throws, because he’s going to get the crunch time minutes.
November 3rd, 2006 at 9:51 am
Sheridan just dropped on an ESPN chat that the Cavs banished you to the Upper Deck. Is that true? That’s insane, given that you’re the best mainstream source that team has.
November 3rd, 2006 at 10:21 am
All these predictions are predicated upon no guys getting hurt. Miami was slightly above a .500 team when O’Neal was hurt. San Antonio was slightly above a .500 team when Duncan was hurt. The Suns were amazing when Stoudemire was hurt.
And that’s the big difference between the Cavs and the legitimately good teams. It’s only a matter of time before Hughes gets hurt and Marshall and Ilgauskas’ bodies start to self-destruct. Ron Murray is in Detroit. And no matter how you slice it, the Cavs remain a roster with some very, very bad defensive players getting the bulk of the minutes.
Besides, with all due respect to the oracle from the South Euclid News-Herald, or whatever it is, 57-25 and an 0-6 regular season record against your playoff foe is fairly meaningless. Although, I guess they don’t let teams play each other six times during the regular season anymore.
Unless David Wesley uses his pair of satellite dishes for purposes other than getting DIRECTV beamed directly to his brain, this is still the same roster, minus the Hughes clone. But James is great and still getting better, and he’d make any team in the NBA an above .500 team. So unless he gets hurt, I say 52-30. But if he rolls a couple of ankles while carrying the team for the fourth consecutive year, much like Luke Jackson and Michael Reghi’s used suits, the Cavs’ gift of Greg Oden will go to a needy family.
The Cavs will tease the local media and the fans during the regular season, but during a seven-game series, they’re exposed for what they are. About as serious as Ferry’s impending Ilgauskas for Dwight Howard swap.
I agree with that Dajuan Wagner thing, though. Talk about intestinal fortitude, both figuratively and literally. Compared to what he’s gone through, Ilgauskas’ feet were a walk in the park. And talk about irony, Wagner is probably better than the bench guards the Cavs have now. No matter how lucrative his rookie contract was, it is impossible not to admire and respect that guy.
November 3rd, 2006 at 10:51 am
57-25, 1st in Central, 2nd in East.
November 3rd, 2006 at 10:59 am
I can’t stand sheridan, but yeah, he just said in a chat wrap that the cavs “banished” you to 300 feet away….what’s the deal Brian?
November 3rd, 2006 at 6:35 pm
Who the hell is Sheridan?
November 10th, 2006 at 5:14 am
I have to say that teh Cavaliers will havea 53-29 record. If you look at the top teams in the east, Detroit is really strugling this year, and I beleive that the cavs are the best team in the east.
November 22nd, 2006 at 8:09 am
61/21