Officially fair
Posted May 5th, 2006 by Brian Windhorst
Washington — Sorry it has been so long between posts, the playoffs are an intense grind for the writers as well. It has been a great series between two evenly-matched teams and here on the afternoon of Game 6 I still don’t think you can for sure say who is going to win the series. The Wizards have three good players and a couple role players. The Cavs have one great player and more role players plus homecourt advantage. There’s been enough written about all this.
What I think is important is to stop worrying about the officials in this series. Despite what some fans posing as columnists say, the officiating in this series has been fine. LeBron has charged a bunch of times. The Wizards know that when he goes to his left he tends to lower his right shoulder so they try to get him to do it. Gilbert Arenas gets fouls when he goes to the basket and the Wizards have gone to the basket more than the Cavs in the series, which is why they’ve drawn more fouls.
Did LeBron walk in Game 3? Yes. Did Ruffin foul him? Yes. Should either of those calls me made at that time? Probably not. Did the Wizards have a disadvantage in Game 5 because two guys had fouled out? Yes. Were they screwed? No way, the Cavs got to the line 25 times in the first half and set the stage for all that foul trouble.
Enough with all the whining and shame on Eddie Jordan and Mike Brown for taking the lead and getting the crowds into it. Look at it objectively, as the refs do, and the fouls and the calls have been fair.
Every game in this series has been decided on which team can impose its will and style on the game. The Cavs played to the Wizards style a little in Game 5, but that works when they are at home and it really works because of LeBron.
The X-factor in determining who wins is, in my opinion, whether Zydrunas Ilgauskas can finally become a factor and whether the Cavs can limit Jamison or Butler. They can’t stop Arenas and probably not both of the others, but they can’t continue to let those guys all get 20 points or more.
May 5th, 2006 at 11:03 am
My problem with the refs is that they react to someone going down, rather than seeing contact and making a call. It’s the players doing it, but they do it because it draws a lot of calls. The Wizards just happen to be doing it more often.
Have you ever seen Shaq in the post? If lowering your shoulder into someone is a charge, he’d foul out on his first 6 touches.
That being said, it’s ok for fans to whine. The coaches should keep their mouths shut.
May 5th, 2006 at 11:14 am
Something is up with Z. I was at game 5. Z was the first Cav on the court after the half to get in some extra shooting. I think he missed his first 8-10 shots, then he missed the first 2 set shots from the foul line. And during the game when he got the ball he seemed hesitant or scared something that I really never remember seeing. We need him to step up big tonight.
May 5th, 2006 at 1:11 pm
Wow, Brian, that Knott column was almost unreadable. How’s that guy have a job in your profession? Do you know him and can you give him a big “nyah,nyah” for us?
Objectively, I’d say the refs should have called LeBron’s travel, which was obvious, but not Butler’s foul, which was playoff basketball. Otherwise, the bad calls have gone both ways pretty evenly.
It was nice to see all of the Cavs ballhandlers taking it to the rim the other night, and nice to see some 15 and 18-foot jumpers rather than a bunch of three pointers. Hopefully there’ll be more of that tonight, and a big edge in rebounds.
May 5th, 2006 at 1:17 pm
Brian:
Please. For the love og God. Please do not EVER AGAIN link to that hack Tom Knott again. My God! The day I read the Washington Times for any valid news/reporting/opinion is the day I burn my eyes out of my skull.
May 5th, 2006 at 2:44 pm
James is a phenomenal kid, but in the Imaginary World According to LeBron, I don’t think he’s ever committed a foul or traveled in his life. The guy is a non-stop traveling machine.
Michael Jordan’s feet + Earvin Johnson’s feet (minus Magic’s palming) = LeBron James. Be sure to write this formula on the bottom of your shoes or on the back of the chair in front of you, you crazy college kids. It will be on the midterm.
May 5th, 2006 at 6:26 pm
Glad to have you back Brian. Now can you tell us what is wrong with Z? The guy has his ups and downs always, but he has been dismal in the playoffs. The bags under his eyes are bigger with each game. Something is clearly wrong - what is it? He’s going to have to improve for us to get anywhere.
May 6th, 2006 at 1:45 am
The “problem” with Z is that, just like I said would happen in a playoff series as opposed to single games during a regular season, is that teams watch the video and realize he’s awful when double-teamed and/or when defenses collapse. So that’s what they do.
With that said, my lower back hurt so badly last night, that I went to bed and missed the game. At least Luke Jackson and I have something in common. Oh, well. Wish I didn’t, considering it evidently was an exciting game. If Larry had any human decency whatsoever, he would have called me, dragged me out of bed and advised me of this. I could have winced and turned on the TV.
But putting it into proper perspective while fans and sportswriters/fans are losing their marbles and getting positively delirious about eeking out a series victory (over a .500 team, mind you), yes, it was extremely valuable personal and professional experience for James. Absolutely. But let’s be serious, it’s really not much else. Nearly the entire rotation consists of grossly overpaid long-term salary-capped role players. A realist would argue the Cavaliers are destined to be doing a Timberwolves impression for years to come. Thank you, Danny Ferry.
But I suppose it can’t hurt for all the “self-esteem challenged” Cleveland fans and sportswriter/fans to occasionally feel really good about themselves. So in that spirit, I am now shaving an action montage of Damon Jones, Donyell Marshall and Eric Snow into the bellies of my dogs. Never let it be said that I don’t know how to party.
May 6th, 2006 at 5:24 am
I love how when people want to make pessimism more common-place, they call themselves realists. Its really quite funny.
Also, if we’re speaking of grossly overpaid players, not many Cavs even sneak into the equation. At least not since Michael “Yogi” Stewart left the Cavs. We have players that are paid slightly more than market-value, but we don’t have a contract like that of Brian Cardinal or Adonal Foyle that are by far the worst contracts in the league. Paying slightly more than market is how free agency works, if you want the players, you have to pay more than other teams. Free agency 101.
May 6th, 2006 at 5:30 am
Alan makes a couple interesting points in that — given their records and seeding — the Cavs should have been expected to win this series. At ESPN.com, most of the experts picked the Cavs. Almost everyone expected it to be a seven-game series, however, and stat maven John Hollinger said that the Cavs had essentially a 57% chance of advancing. (This amounts to winning each home game in a seven game series — which would translate into a 4-3 series record).This series played out pretty closely to the way it was projected to play out.
There are still several positives about this, however. For instance, the Cavs were a sub-.500 road team during the regular season, and they were horrible (6-16) on the road against playoff teams. But in this series, they won 2 of 3 ROAD games against a team that won nearly 2/3 of their HOME games. Statistically, that’s sort of like the Toronto Raptors beating the Phoenix Suns or the Miami Heat two out of three.
Also, entering the playoffs there were a couple storylines that worked strongly against the Cavs: They were young, and young teams fold in the playoffs; and they weren’t playoff tested, and playoff tenderfoots lose in the playoffs. I suppose you could add that the Cavs have a national rep as a team that folds down the stretch and as one that can’t finish games. This was wrong, of course, but the Cavs did both in this series.
One final note: While it is correct that Washington finished barely above .500 this season, their points scored and allowed suggest that they should have had a record ~ five games better than that. In actual projections of the two teams’ records, the Cavs were only about a game-and-a-half better than the Wizards, who projected to a 47-35 W/L. (The Cavs won 1.5 games more than they should have.)
That said, the same projections suggest the Cavs should get beat in about five games by the Pistons.
May 6th, 2006 at 5:45 am
Brian,
I know you downplayed it on your blog, but the foul storyline of this series was interesting, don’t you think?
Reading the stories during the series, I would have thought that the Cavs were living at the foul line this series, but (as Mike Golic pointed out)it just wasn’t true.
Consider that the Wizards shot more foul shots in four of five games (both teams shot 29 free throws in game 2), and they made more free throws in four of the six games. Only in Game 4 (a 10-point Cav loss, BTW) did Cleveland shoot more free throws in a game. For the series, the Wiz averaged nearly five more free throws per game than did Cleveland.
Also, in five of the six games Washington had the fewer number of fouls whistled against them. Generally, Washington was called for significantly fewer fouls each game — an average of four less, 23-27. But for the Game 4 disparity, that gap would have grown to more than 7 more fouls against Cleveland than Washington per game. That’s a lot.
BTW, it an be argued that the foul line did work in the Cavs favor in that they made over 80% of their freebies during the series. because the Wizards made 8% less free throws, their advantage at the stripe was virtually eliminated. (8 more free throws made durng the entire series.)
Why didn’t the Cleveland foul shooting get more love? Why didn’t the national media pick up on this?
(As an aside, if you’d told me the Cavs would win Game 6 when LeBron shot only three free throws, I’d have said you were nuts.)
May 6th, 2006 at 1:46 pm
“Storyline” is right. More story than line. When did the Cavs become a “young team?” The rotation is filled with guys with hairs in their pillows. Other than James, I don’t see “young” with the word “talent” next to it. Their second-best young guy is Ricky Davis with a neck tattoo.
Sorry, but unless Ferry can find a time machine and reverse the dumb things he did last off-season, James could be destined to be Garnett with prettier deltoids.
May 6th, 2006 at 4:08 pm
He can’t be KG because it took KG eight years to get out of the first round. Lebs got out on his first try.
Detroit in 4 or 5.
May 6th, 2006 at 4:56 pm
Getting out of the first round is easy. Or should be, at least. If a team with James can’t beat a .500 opponent, they you’ve got some serious issues. What I mean is unless Ferry can pull a Paxson/Sean Kemp bad contract dump thing, his dopey moves after he took the job almost guarantee James will be in a Garnett waiting and waiting and waiting for real team success situation for awhile.
All of these local columnists inhaling Prozac are making me cringe. Brian is absolutely right that fans are posing as columnists, although he obviously got his cities mixed up. With all their giddiness, you’d think Bill Fitch was back in his leisure suit.
Come to think of it, Nate Thurmond is a free agent, isn’t he? Ferry should look into that. I know he isn’t as suave with the ladies as Ilgauskas, and Nate’s gotta be about 95 or 100 by now, but at least he won’t go into full panic mode when there’s a defender within five feet of him.
May 6th, 2006 at 6:06 pm
Regarding the “young” comment, I think you’re essentially right, Alan. Neither are the Cavs decrepit, however.
Young with talent: LBJ (21), Gooden (24), Varejao (23). Relatively young with talent: Hughes (27) and Murray (26). That’s three starters and two key reserves (or four starters and one key reserve) among their eight main rotation players (counting Jones as a main player, which he hasn’t been in the playoffs).
Even Jones (29) and Ilgauskas (30) aren’t “that” old, although 30+ is certainly nowhere near young by NBA standards.
It is a concern that one of those “young with talent” players (Murray) will almost certainly be on another team next year, and another (Gooden) probably will be.
May 6th, 2006 at 7:20 pm
My point was not their age this season, but next season and beyond. Other than James, not really “young.” The rotation is already filled with long-term bloated contracts of 30-something guys that might not even make it into the playoffs next season. Yes, the team will make it, but some players won’t. Any team with James can make at least a #8 seed, but the players with the very worst contracts are getting slower by the day. Marshall moves like a human arthritic hip, Snow is Snow, and doesn’t Ilgauskas supposedly have knee problems? There are 82 games before the playoffs, and it’s going to be that way for the rest of the years on their contracts. By the 83rd games of the seasons, I’ll be surprised if Marshall and Ilgauskas will even be able to roll their molasses asses out of bed. Poor Jennifer.
Larry Hughes is nothing more than Ricky Davis’ clone. Good player, still relatively young, yes, but also a lot more expensive than Davis’ contract.
On top of that, young Murray isn’t going to stick around to be a bench player, and young Gooden is gone. That is, if somebody is dumb enough to pay a guy a premium for showing up one out of every two games. Half the time the lights are on, but nobody is home. And yet, he gets paid for it. What a country. It’s like watching a government employee in action.
May 6th, 2006 at 7:40 pm
I neglected to include Jones and the Brazilian guy…Hopefully, by the time next season starts, Jones will be part of some other team’s rotation. Good thing that game didn’t last another 10 seconds, because Jones would have promptly given back those two points after being burned on defense. Nope, Jones is still a stiff. That’s why Brown, at long last, finally wised up and benched him. Dick Snyder made a prime-time shot, too, but it still didn’t change the underlying fact that his talent was far more Dick than Snyder.
And Mr. Brazil, well, my opinion hasn’t changed that he’s a young Scot Pollard. Like Pollard was at his best, a very good guy to have on your team. But without substantial improvement, referring to him as “young” and “talented” is a reach.
May 7th, 2006 at 3:49 am
The main problem with the Cavs roster lies in the fact that there’s no consistent second option who can develop his game around James.
It’s supposed to be Illgauskus and/or Hughes, but neither player is that good as a go-to guy and, at this stage in both their careers, vast improvement is unlikely.
While Magic Johnson, Larry Bird and Michael Jordan were still very young, GMs West, Auerbach and Krause found HOF sidekicks in Worthy, McHale and Pippen (not to mention “complementary” players like Bob McAdoo, Robert Parish, Dennis Johnson and Horace Grant).
I’m not sure how the Cavs are going to find another great talent with their present cap situation, or if Ferry even thinks he needs to.
May 7th, 2006 at 4:52 am
Regarding how the aging players hold up over time: We’ll see.
I think you’re absolutely wrong about Varejao, who is an exceptional rebounder, is a decent jump shooter, is highly mobile (and so, can fill lanes on breaks), and is the Cavs best front-line defender. He gives Cleveland so much versatility and so many different looks. He does foul too much, and he’s a horrible foul shooter.
You’re also absolutely wrong about Hughes. While he might not be Scottie Pippen, he is a good player (even if he was marginalized this year). I expect you’ll see a much better version of him next year. As it was — fighting injuries the whole year — the Cavs went 24-13 with him in the lineup this year (and he was never close to 100%).
Murray is gone.
Gooden will be part of a sign-and-trade deal by the Cavs, so the big question is: who will Danny Ferry acquire in the swap?
May 7th, 2006 at 9:08 am
Kevin, there is absolutely nothing I can say that Larry didn’t perfectly say already…other than to say that local sportswriters are making total fools of themselves by hyperventilating on false hope, that James won’t get the opportunity to rise above Ferry’s mistakes until sometime during President Hillary Clinton’s second term, and that the world record for the largest human nose is 7.5 inches, courtesy of some dude with an enormous schnoz in a 1770s United Kingdom traveling circus.
May 7th, 2006 at 9:34 am
Kevin is right in that Hughes and Varejao could be part of an athletic rotation. That’s what the Cavs need to build on, though Hughes gets hurt an awful lot and you really need a dependable third guard if he’s the guy.
I’m not as sure as everyone else seems to be that Murray is going to get a lot of offers to be a starter. Teams will probably see him for what he is–a pretty good third guard. The Cavs should promise him 30-35 minutes a game.
I still think this summer will be more important than last, as far as seeing what what kind of roster Ferry can build now that he’s watched James for a year.
If I were Ferry, I’d be frantically trying to trade Z and Snow for Steve Francis and maybe Jackie Butler, before Isiah Thomas gets canned.
May 7th, 2006 at 10:30 am
Larry, I agree that Murray is not going to get many offers to be a starter, but neither Murray nor his agent can possibly be naive enough to believe a false Ferry promise of 30-35 minutes a game. His role, if it’s on the Cavs, is going to end up being his Sonics role. He’d play substantive minutes only when Hughes inevitably gets hurt again.
I also agree with that Knicks proposal. Problem is, Gilbert sells the sizzle, not the steak. So long as tickets sell, loges sell, marketing sells and James can be re-upped in the summer of 2008, I highly doubt his primary concern is the team’s finish through 2010. He’s a very smart businessman talking out of both sides of his mouth.
Moving Ilgauskas and his contract will only serve to alienate the fan populace in a major way, and local hyperventilating sportswriters would do more than their fair share to fan the flames. The last think Gilbert desires is bad press. Teflon he’s not, he’s made that perfectly clear. Shoot Gilbert up with truth serum, and he’ll tell you his foremost concern is a strong return on his fiscal investment. He’s getting it, and I think they can continue to successfully sell false hope for the next four years, don’t you? So from that perspective, moving Ilgauskas will accomplish nothing.
May 9th, 2006 at 3:03 am
What an interesting Pluto column today–he even throws some well-deserved kudos toward the “mixed record” of our old friend Jim Paxson. Shouldn’t John Lucas get some props too? Without that 17 win season, the Cavs would have never landed LeBron. Ingenious!
May 9th, 2006 at 3:04 am
Whoops–Ingenius!
May 9th, 2006 at 7:11 am
I could not agree more, Larry. I actually cringed when I read it. Seriously.
I respect and admire Terry Pluto a LOT, not only with regards to his earlier sportswriting, but also with what he’s done with his life over the past ten years or so. He is really a fine person and a good guy. I strongly recommend to everybody out there that you read his two books on faith, which mostly consist of compilations of his columns. I’m the biggest apathetic non-believer in the world, but those essays really are outstanding. You do not need to be religious to appreciate them and take something from them. Some really terrific stuff.
With that being expressly said, this must now be said: That particular column is such an abomination, so out-of-this-world, so patently ridiculous, so nonsensical, so outrageous, such rose-colored glass-wearing flagrant, blatant pom-pom cheerleading salesman tripe, that if I had to take one single sports column to put in a time capsule to describe everything that is wrong and has been wrong with Northeast Ohio sportswriting since I first read a newspaper sports section after the Browns won their last championship, I would get out my scissors and snip and laminate that for future generations.
But other than that, it really is a fine piece of sportswriting opinion and analysis. Hits the nail on the head.
May 10th, 2006 at 6:59 am
I was a fan of LeBron James until recently, but it turned to pure hatred, especially after the series with the Wizards. Yeah, I’m from the DC area, but I do like other players nad teams. LeBron is going to get way of control, he’s already on the path. He’s already acting like the whole world owes him everything. I don’t know what happened to him, because a few short years ago he acted nothing like he does now. I myself get carried away ranting about jerk basketball players, and now he’s one of them. You know what would’ve happened if he talked that crap to me at the line? I would’ve kneecapped him so hard that he’d be in a cast today. Sure, I would’ve been ejected from the game, but he wouldn’t be playing right now, either. I like how he was sitting on the bench the other night with fingernail clippers, just like a big queer. He’s a puss just like Garnett, Gary Payton, Bruce Bowen, and Tim Duncan. I wouldn’t be surprised if they all get together, spread out the quilt, hold hands and cry to one another about how the refs are so mean to them. It’s ok, because the Cavs are about to be snuffed out by Detroit. Duncan and Bowen? No rings for you dinks this season, either.
May 10th, 2006 at 7:44 am
GFN - You’ve been reading to much of the Washington Times. Crying? What do you call that rant?
May 10th, 2006 at 8:28 am
GFN, it’s been well over a day later, and I’m still completely blown away by that Terry Pluto column. Is every local sportswriter, from the very best to the very worst, now working for the Cavaliers marketing department? That TV show “Invasion” has come true. Science fiction, my ass. But now I just read your post, and I just can’t let this go without asking what you mean by, “I do like other players nad teams.”
On second thought, never mind. There’s some things in life I’d rather not know.
May 10th, 2006 at 5:19 pm
Mr. Alan Tucker, it was meant to say “other players AND teams”. It was just a typo. to “dpl” I don’t call it anything. Crying is what’s gonna be happening when LeBron gets seriously injured for the first time. I don’t mean tendonitis either. That’s been his luck so far, no real injuries. If Omeka Okafor would’ve just had the same luck. But hey, if LeBron ever gets a bad injury, back in the dumpster the Cavs will go.
May 10th, 2006 at 6:31 pm
I suppose “and” makes far more sense than “nads.” I thought I was reading the “Beavis & Butt-head” blog.