Help me settle a bet
Posted March 5th, 2006 by bwindhorst
First, for some breakdowns and analysis of Cavs issues, check out my Sunday column on why the Cavs need an offensive coordinator. I know that Terry Pluto and I have been on the Cavs a lot in the paper over the last couple of days, but the point is to point out to fans why the team is struggling. It is still a good club and it’s going to make the playoffs, but after watching the Cavs fold over the last two seasons the media is responsible to the fans for painting an accurate picture.
Now, on to the topic of the day. I’ve been bickering with several Cavs officials and coaches recently about how many points LeBron James would be averaging if he were a junior in college right now. For the sake of argument, let’s say he’s playing at an ACC school. That’s a high-scoring conference, I know.
It is the belief of some that LeBron would be averaging 40 points or more per game, perhaps as much as 45, considering his physical size and ability to get to the basket and finish. Considering players like J.J. Redick and Adam Morrison are averaging 27 points per game or whatever, some say LeBron would re-write all the scoring record books.
It is my belief that he would be averaging about the same as in the NBA, about 30 points per game considering he’s a team-first player who would draw double teams. Also, because there’s a 35-second clock and eight fewer minutes in the game, there are just simply fewer possessions. I’ve asked LeBron about it and he pretty much talked in circles, saying "It depends on what kind of team I’m on."
So, with all the conference tournaments getting going and college basketball’s golden season upon us, let’s have your opinion in the comments section below.
LATE ADD: As a FYI, LeBron averaged 30.4 points as a senior at St. Vincent-St. Mary.
March 5th, 2006 at 7:47 am
Teams would just play zone and make him shoot, he’d get most of his points in transition. So if his team pushed the ball a lot as they should, he could average 35 or more. He’d have some 45-point games maybe, but he wouldn’t average 45 in the current college game.
Where would LeBron have gone to school anyway? I always heard he was going to go play for Keith Dambrot and Drew and Romeo at Akron.
March 5th, 2006 at 8:24 am
I can’t imagine LeBron would choose an ACC school outside of UNC and Duke. He’d have talented teammates and though he would be able to score almost at will, I think he’d relish the opportunity to control games by passing the ball.
Maybe you’d have to look at LeBron’s scoring average in high school, which I don’t know, rather than the pros, to get a read of what he’d do in college. My guess is he’d score less than 25 points a game. What was Jordan’s highest average in college?
Also, an interesting column today, Mr. Windhorst. It sure seems difficult to gauge the relative importance of scheme vs. talent in the NBA. Which is more important and why?
March 5th, 2006 at 9:24 am
I agree that James wouldn’t be averaging more than his NBA numbers, probably far less. Redick is averaging what he is only because of that joke of a three-point line they first painted out there in the 80s, and he’s an outside shooter. Otherwise, Redick would be a 20-point scorer, if that. Big NBA scorers are put in a vice by their college coaches.
I know how James handles himself in interviews, but what was his GPA in high school? What was his ACT, if he took that test? Seriously, I want to know. Or would LeBron simply have gotten the Wes Exemption straight into Duke Medical School, too?
Also, it needs to be said: I am extremely disappointed in the author of this blog, particularly after going out of my way to literally stand up and cheer his recent breakout performance as the autistic saloon dancer in “Brokeback Mountain.”
First, there was the Damon Jones “I Am A Leader” piece, where the Cavaliers beat writer was sucked into perpetuating Jones’ non-stop self-promotion. Shaq’s imaginary telephone motivational speech for the ages. Out of the clear blue, Shaq calls up Pied Piper Jones and strongly urges him to once again be a charismatic driving force. Exert your leadership skills! Yesterday the President of Venezuela, today the de facto Captain of the Cleveland Cavaliers, tomorrow challenging Hillary Clinton and thwarting President Mrs. Clinton’s 2012 re-election bid. I already have the bumper sticker on my car. “JONES-FLAVOR FLAV: WE BE ON THE SHELVE IN 2012.”
Now today, another “dribble” straight off his foot. Evidently sucked in by the Cleveland Clinic’s subtle PR campaign to deflect criticism from the possibility of botched surgery of Hughes’ finger. Brian, the simple fact the second surgery was not performed by the same doctor is very telling. And *of course* they put him in a full cast the second time as a protective measure. Given the questions surrounding the first surgery, any doctor would have done that in a revision surgery. Plus, I have no idea why you noted (possibly prodded by a Clinic flak, I don’t know, you tell us) that a couple of weeks after Hughes’ first surgery, Jackson had a pin inserted by the same doctor. First, common sense says it wouldn’t have been put in by the exact same doctor if Jackson broke his wrist today instead of shortly after Hughes broke his finger. Too much Cavaliers front office doubt. Second, a .500 batting average would be terrific if Doc was replacing Casey Blake. But it’s not a boffo batting average if you’re swinging your bat in an operating room.
March 5th, 2006 at 1:57 pm
Oh, and my own late add - - college coaches would have required James to do a lot more playmaking and rebounding, so he’d have far fewer opportunities to chuck up three pointers than Duke’s latest lilly-white Naismith College Player of the Year. Two points is less than three.
And regarding another Windhorst Sunday column “dribble,” this regarding Ilgauskas - - he should keep his somewhat selfish opinions to himself both publicly AND privately. Who held a gun to his agent’s head and told them to re-up with Cleveland? Ilgauskas had the opportunity to go anywhere he wanted to go. Instead, Ilgauskas chose to go for the outrageous money and the ridiculous long-term contract that only one GM was dumb enough to offer. That mildly disgruntled attitude should be kept between himself and his wife during pillow talk. Refrain from mouthing off to Cavaliers “insiders” that pass the word on to media people. What’s the difference if he didn’t say it “publicly?” For all intents and purposes, he did. Otherwise, it would never have made it into the newspaper as a printed “dribble,” am I right?
Ilgauskas may indeed be a good guy, but when any NBA veteran says what he said, then it’s just another grossly overpaid jerk flapping his gums in the wind. You want more offensive touches? Then introduce yourself to a barbell. For ball-touch starters, you’ll finally be able to rebound a shot attempt other than your own.
And poor, poor Z and his diaper rash. Nobody came to his defense. You poor baby. As if his center counterpart, Ben Wallace, would have required any teammate to run to his defense if a guy slapped him in the head. Sure, Ben Wallace’s teammates would have immediately come to his defense as a show of unity. Of course. But by the time they got there, Wallace would have already been handcuffed, read his Miranda rights, and arrested on a charge of first-degree manslaughter.
There, I feel better now.
March 5th, 2006 at 3:22 pm
At least Alan got his two posts in early!
March 5th, 2006 at 3:43 pm
That, I did. But don’t you yourself have any opinions regarding this James college hypothetical, or even with respect to Ilgauskas’ “private” whining? It would be a shame if I’m only one of a few that has thoughts to contribute towards some interesting topics raised by one of the Rubber City’s finest.
March 5th, 2006 at 10:52 pm
And I find it hard to believe that James could ever break Pete Maravich’s records even if he spent three years in college majoring in…oh, I don’t know…headband weaving, I suppose. That’s even with James’ benefit of the three-point line. If Maravich had the three-point line, that guy would have averaged close to 60 points a game over his college career. As it was, he averaged 44.
Who’s picking a fight with you regarding this subject, anyway? Who are these “Cavs officials?”
March 6th, 2006 at 8:04 am
LBJ would have gone to Duke; he would have stayed for two years and averaged 35.6 ppg. for his career. I don’t think it would have been 40+ ppg simply because D1 NCAA basketball is just a little faster and the players are a little bigger then high school ball.
Alan, glad to see you also hate on the best college ball player in the land. When was the last time you seen a skinny white boy that is only 6′4″ at 190 lbs become the most feared player in the land?
Quote -
“Redick is averaging what he is only because of that joke of a three-point”
End quote.
Are you freaking’ serious? Come on A-TUCK, I like you and I thought you was smarter than that. Like your boy Pistol Pete, JJ has dead freaking’ aim accuracy. How many times has Redick hit ‘treys’ 5 - 6 - 7 feet beyond the three point, err, joke line? I can’t tell you because I lost count.
Not that you care but Redick is at 27.8ppg and shooting 41.8% from the ‘joke’ line, 48% from the field and 89% from the free throw line. Those stats look better then you best friends DMARSHALL and DJONES, I think it’s time to sign Redick for next year.
And yes, I am I Duke fan. Thanks for asking.
Did anyone see DJones on the news playing sportscaster? I did, wow?!?
March 6th, 2006 at 8:48 am
Comments from blog peanut gallery will not settle any bets, as this absurd fantasy question is and will always remain pure speculation. Hey, what would LBJ (all apologies to Alan Tucker) average if he had moved to China and competed in a recreational league against sub-four-foot natives. Who cares. I do know that the college LBJ would have attended would never have booed him.
March 6th, 2006 at 2:13 pm
It is not an absurd fantasy question nor will it always remain pure speculation. James will average 26 points a game during his college career, possibly less if the recruiting class has very good players so he doesn’t have to shoulder the entire load. With an extra 11 seconds on the time-clock, and with good college coaches emphasing team offensive games, he wouldn’t be able to score big consistently.
This total sea of negativity is drowning me. The Earth could fall off its axis, thereby setting the atomic clock backwards in motion to James’ last year of high school, but by the time the clock stops, David Stern will have imposed a CBA addendum to prevent high-schoolers from jumping straight into the pros. Indeed, it is possible, and don’t tell me it isn’t. The “hypothetical” question regarding James and his college career will remain valid.
By way of example, I’ll prove it to you that absolutely nothing is impossible: In 1991, I had a conversation with Bill Livingston, who was and still is a columnist with the Plain Dealer. I was standing in line at the International House of Pancakes, and I saw him sitting in a corner booth. I still remember my exact words - - I said, “Bill, wipe those chocolate chip pancakes off your lap and listen to what I have to say. So, do you think 15 years from now, that godawful Danny Ferry will be managing the entire Cavaliers franchise while watching an Academy Award-nominated movie about gay cowboys and shaving with a Gillette FIVE-BLADED razor?” The man got out his 35-pound portable cellular phone and had me committed to a mental institution until I finally busted out of there late in the summer of 1999.
March 6th, 2006 at 2:37 pm
Personally, I think the “how many points would LeBron average in college” is a fun question. It lets us look back at the college careers of today’s NBA greats and lets us contemplate the NBA careers of the college greats that never quite became NBA stars.
As a rule, players score more points when they go into the NBA. For example, Jordan averaged 19.6 ppg during his final year at UNC, then went on to average 27.8 ppg during his first year with the Bulls. While it may take some players time to reach their potential in the NBA, the great scorers of the league universally surpass their college scoring numbers within their first three years. This is undoubtedly due to a lot of things, from a player’s physical and mental development to the increased number of possessions, and likewise opportunties to score, in the NBA.
At the same time, the college game can make certain players seem better, as seems to be the case with J.J. Redick and Adam Morrison. I love those guys for who they are, but I wouldn’t expect either of them to be Hall-of-Fame level NBA players. At the same time, would anyone think that Larry Bird’s college stats, a 30.3ppg average, were the result of weak college competition?
But LeBron obviously breaks most of the rules. At his size, with his ability, he could average 30, 40, 50 ppg if he wanted to do that. But why would he? Would he get more praise, more glory, more money? No. The only reason he would put up ridiculous offensive numbers is if it helped his team win. If I had to make a guess, I’d say that LeBron would average just enough to be the top scorer in the country (maybe just short of 30 ppg, he’s not completely unselfish), but then he’d explode in the Tourney when his team needed him, dropping well over 40 more than once.
The better question: how far into the NCAA Tournament would LeBron take the current Akron team? Could he, like Larry Legend, take an unknown team and push them to the verge of a national title against a traditional powerhouse? That is much more interesting to me than the simple statistic of points per game.
March 6th, 2006 at 7:36 pm
Late Add: High schools only play 8 minute quarters, so Lebron would be playing in 40 min. games in college instead of 32 min games.
But, using the high school standard, if he averaged almost a point a minute (actually, probably better than a point a minute, since he didn’t play the entire game) in high school against the best competition in the country, there’s no reason that trend would stop in college. Therefore, LEbron would drop 40 a night, to go with 12 rebounds and 12 assists.
March 7th, 2006 at 1:21 am
This address is for the NewyorkCav
http://www.ohio.com/mld/ohio/sports/columnists/terry_pluto/13998602.htm
March 7th, 2006 at 8:55 am
Thanks for the link Phi. Terry writes “You know what they mostly did? They groaned.” So, I guess the Cleveland climate mysteriously transforms groans into boos. Perhaps the groans happened to coincide with unrelated burps (belch) and sneezes (achooo) for a sound something close to “belachoooo”. And the evil national media Thanks for the link Phi. Terry writes “You know what they mostly did? They groaned.” So, I guess the Cleveland climate mysteriously transforms groans into boos. Perhaps the groans happened to conincde with unrelated burps (belch) and sneezes (achooo) for a sound something close to “belachoooo”. Sort of like the sounds the gohsts used to make on the old Scooby Doo episodes. And the evil national media convinietly interpreted the sound as boooo. Hey, if the world could fall off its axis, I guess this is plausible too.
Separately, we should hire someone to run onto the court and whip off LBJ’s headband every night right before tip off to get him going.
March 7th, 2006 at 11:47 am
RE: B. Windhorst’s “Ode to Snow”
I enjoyed reading the column today and in fact haven’t seen a more sensitive portrayal of Snow since we covered James Joyce’s The Dead in freshman comp.
But seriously, if Snow always played like he has the past two games there would be no argument from me. I wonder how much of Snow’s, or the team’s, improvement can be attributed to Flip Murray?
Flip may not be an all-star, but he seems to play fearlessly on offense. Snow played his best ball when paired with Allen Iverson (now known in Akron as “the other Answer”).
Come to think of it, Hughes played his best ball next to a fearless gunner too, Gilbert Arenas.
March 7th, 2006 at 8:48 pm
O.K., who neutered my comments? And why is Tom Reed being shipped to Toronto? There’s a dicey history here. The last time this identical Reed for Windhorst substitution occured across the border, Paul Silas got fired.
March 9th, 2006 at 7:48 am
LeBron would have become an Akron Zip and continued to play with his Boyz, Romeo Travis and Dru Joyce. He would have dominated MAC competition to the tune of about 35 pts. per game.
March 9th, 2006 at 8:27 am
LeBron has stated on numerous occasions that had he gone to college, he was going to Ohio State. That being said, LeBron would have done whatever he wanted to do in college. He could score 40 a night or scor 15 and dish out 20 assists. The man would have tore it up as he would have been a notch above everyone else.
March 9th, 2006 at 2:43 pm
First and foremost, had he went to an ACC school, it would have been NC State because in the past 35 years, besides Duke and UNC no other ACC school has won the NCAA championship. He would have loved the challenge of putting NCS back on the map, and all of the accolades Dick Vitale would have bestowed on him for playing at Jimmy V’s school. Now back to the subject at hand. He would have almost averaged a triple double: 28 points, 12 rebounds and 8-9 assists.
Tank
March 9th, 2006 at 3:37 pm
Don’t even raise the name of Jimmy V. Pet peeve here. If anybody requires a classic example of the sports media completely glossing over unbelievable sleaze simply because the subject has a winning personality and is inspirational while suffering from a disease, Jimmy V. will always be Exhibit A. The same thing works the other way. If James snarled at reporters, the posted question wouldn’t be “settle a bet as to how many points James would have averaged in college.” The posted question would be “please post suggestions on the most effective way to sneak Tabasco sauce inside a guy’s jock.”
March 14th, 2006 at 5:41 pm
I will never talk ill of the dead only the living…