It's time to summarize where we are in the Democratic primary and make predictions about what will happen next. We're still a few weeks away from the Pennsylvania primary and if the Knee Padders' nightly sputterings are any indication, nothing, and I mean nothing, of substance will be shared with American teevee viewers during those few weeks. The Pad Media is, predictably, microscoping every vowel and consonant from Clinton and Obama while simultaneously conducting solemn and oh-so-serious hero-worship services for the POW presidential wannabe, John S. McCain.
What will we witness as we go forward in this historic election cycle?
Obama will win the pledged delegate count, the popular vote count, and eventually, the super-duper delegate count…..and that will lead, sadly for Hillary….to the end of here aspirational road. It may be ugly, there may be some hard feelings, but that's how it's going to end.
The fraying thread Hillary is trying to hang on to is the far-flung idea, I think, that Obama still has hidden crimes or conspiracies yet to be uncovered that may disqualify him somehow. Her surrogates' argument that the Wright issue makes Obama unelectable, I think, holds no water. The polling after the Wright topic exploded shows little movement. Obama's leadership and trust numbers demonstrate that Obama is the best candidate. I realize polls are not flawless predictors but it's the TREND that tells the story.
Hillary has a 700,000 popular vote deficit to make up…..virtually a mathematical impossiblity. The pledged delegate category simply can't be won by Mrs. Clinton. Impossible. That only leaves the super-dupers. Obama has already slashed Hillary's advantage down to 40-50 from a previous 200+ difference and every sign points to this continuing.
That only leaves the fiction of Obama's unelectability because of Jeremiah Wright ….or….some new bombshell information. Without doubt the Republicans with their 527 hounds will go all in on the Wright topic. However, as far as Democrats are concerned today, the Wright controversy doesn't disqualify Obama.
Then what?
The contestants, McCain and Obama, will begin their general election campaigning.
Here are two of my predictions of what will happen then…..
First prediction: Democrats, record primary turnout Democrats, will rally wildly for Obama. Far and away the majority of current Hillary supporters will stand with the Illinois Senator. The crescendo of support will build to a frenzy by fall…..huge, record breaking crowds will gather all over this country to hear Obama and his audacity of hope for change message. With his huge small donor supporters list, Obama will raise money at will. His national teevee ads will flood the airwaves. Barack Obama will pick a helpful vice presidential candidate and the August convention will inspire even more Americans with the belief that, yes, we can change America for the better and Obama's the right person to start the long process of repairing the damage from the last 8 years. The polling will show McCain losing by at least 10% going into the November vote, maybe more.
Second prediction (some hyperbole): Many Republican brand names will sit on the sidelines and allow the 527 homicide bombers to strap on their belts of lying propaganda and then explode them all over Knee Pad Medialand. I can't state the importance of this enough. In spite of these domestic political insurgent actions….Obama's polling numbers will stay solid, just as they have against Hillary after she, her husband and her surrogates tried, albeit mildly, to hurt Obama's chances by detonating racial smear-by-association bombs.
In part 2 I will go into the weeds of triangulation and swiftboating to show not only what the Clinton's have done in the primary race but also to predict what those conservative 527 groups, harnessed to Knee Pad Medialand, will do as we get into the general election campaign.
{ 15 comments… read them below or add one }
Rev,
I see a couple of scenarios. The DLC types pull some Rovian rabbit out of the hat and Hillary becomes the nominee. We then have the dirtiest campaign in history. The Republicans have about twenty years of practice of smearing Hillary and the Clinton's are easily the most ruthless Democrats around. McCain wins.
Or, Obama becomes nominee. In the first debate, McCain loses his temper and Obama cruises to an easy win. The Republicans with help from the DLC try to block everything he wants to do.
Reverend,
Obama is a racist. You must not have read his book. It was written by him, in his words. It will be those words of his, as contained in that book, that will reveal Obama as just another angry black man.
Obama will have to strap that book on in the general election, and rightly so. You can bank on it. And when he does, he will become the political equivalent of a suicide bomber. . .
Another Dem Defeat.
Republican 527 hounds?
The Democrats are the ones with big 527 money!
No need to use symbolism, balladeer. My prediction is Obama will be caught in the halls of Congress wearing a belt of TNT under his jacket and mumbling jibberish in Aramaic. That episode will push him over the top for the Dem nomination but he'll watch from Gitmo as he loses in the general election.
Well of course Obama is a racist….he spoke to both sides, blacks and whites….in his speech about race. That proves he is racist. Black political hopefuls, as everyone knows, are not allowed to talk about white forms of racism. It's simply not allowed.
larry: I'm only guessing here, but I think my prediction, though less colorful and humorous, will prove to be more accurate. And come on…..you know you want to vote for the guy you call the Manchurian.
Pretty funny, Larry D. Pretty damn funny.
I predict Obama will withdraw from the race and join the Professional Bowling Tour. Hillary will then cry tears of joy, the media will immediately fall back in love with her, and we will all joyously celebrate the historic first woman president, until the initial $550 monthly payment for universal health care comes due for every working citizen. Hillary will then become the second Clinton to be impeached, and her vice president, Al Franken, will take over. At that time, Al will implement a new simplified system of taxation, known as "send your money to me, Al Franken." This will solve the US immigration problem, as mexicans and americans both start crossing the border back INTO MEXICO.
Good stuff.
Reverend,
I said nothing about his speech. I mentioned his book.
But since you mentioned the speech, allow me the opportunity to refute your contention that he "spoke to both sides". He did not. His speech pandered to black militancy and white guilt, which for all practical purposes is the same side.
Some black political hopefuls will find it quite shocking that they will actually be held accountable, just like their white counterparts, for talking out of both sides of their mouths. Whether it be a speech on racism, or some backroom meeting with Canadians about trade issues, Obama has proven adept at telling people what he thinks they want to hear. Those skeletons will start falling out of the closet soon enough. And nothing, not political correctness, white guilt or affirmative action will be able to bail them out. Ain't equality wonderful?
I understand political correctness….I understand affirmative action…..but this "white guilt" stuff…..I'm not understanding. And being caucasian, I don't want to be out of the loop.
Explain to me what "white guilt" is supposed to mean. I'm serious. I see those two words thrown around but I've not seen a full explanation of what they're supposed to mean or imply.
Rev,
You're caucasian now ? Hmmm….
Loved the Thriller album.
Stay away from the kids please.
The best explanation for "white guilt" is to see it in action. Any white dem can demonstrate. Simply ask them how they feel about the history of oppression by whites against people of color, and let the hand-wringing, tear-jerking begin. That's white guilt. Then ask them what they believe is most responsible for a culture of self-destructive behaviors prevalent in the black community today. They'll tell you a history of slavery, oppression and racism. That's white guilt.
Of course, you knew this before you asked.
I've seen the words "thrown around" myself, and when taken in context, the meaning is self evident.
Caucasian, huh?
I believe that history clearly shows that whites did indeed oppress blacks in America.
However, acknowledging this doesn't mean, at least not to me, that whites feel guilty themselves today for that oppression. Even bleeding heart types.
But the facts at the very least show that whites, historically, were RESPONSIBLE for that oppression.
The question, I don't think, centers on guilt or trying to make whites feel guilty, but instead, with this historic reality, it's aftermath and what can be done now constructively to pick up the pieces and bind us together as one America.
Sometimes I take the white guilt talk from conservatives as some bogus justification to oppose better race relations.
And your inclusion of "self-destructive behavior prevalent in the black community today", is also instructive. White culture also has it's share of self-destructive behavior….and because there are 8 times as many of us than blacks….I would suggest it is also more destructive.
The conservative call for accountability and personal responsibility is something I agree with…..and it applies to ALL people, regardless of their race. I would bet that you agree.
See? Common ground.
I've always believed that the same rules regarding personal responsibility and accountability should apply equally to all people.
It's this belief that puts me at odds with many blacks and white liberals. I don't make or accept any excuses. The desire to be responsible and accountable for one's actions is personal, not historical or cultural.
White guilt exists. It's real, and it has real implications for hampering efforts to bring about racial harmony. You can call it bogus if you prefer, and I'll just say that you're in denial of the obvious.
No serious person will deny that blacks have been historically oppressed. But history also shows that it was the overwhelming will of white America that put an end to it. Funny, you don't hear much about that. Mixed in with all the talk about Reparations, a sincere "thank you" would be nice.
I appreciate your candor. I do.
I don't see it the same way but that's why America is great, we can agree to disagree.
You regard liberals as making excuses for black irresponsibility. I suppose the programs designated to help blacks would be included in this thinking.
Yes, I agree, responsibility is a personal matter. However and at the same time, black history inside America sets the context for moving forward towards better race relations.
If those single parent numbers were lower amongst blacks, if those unemployment numbers were lower amongst blacks…..still….the context of the history of black's inside America would still be relevant and necessary to understand for making further progress.
Thanks for taking the time to jawbone with me about this.