There's no question that the polling in New Hampshire in the last 72 hours was skewed somehow….or New Hampshire Democratic primary voters changed their minds in the waning hours before the vote. Hey, stuff happens. My enthusiam for an Obama win was fueled by the Iowa numbers and then the subsequent New Hampshire polling numbers showing Obama ahead in the Granite State. That….and the huge crowds Obama has been drawing.
What to say now? Well, let's look at some numbers.
With 96% of New Hampshire precincts counted, it appears that the Democratic groundswell that began in Iowa has continued.
By going here and adding up votes per party, I came up with 280,419 people casting votes for Democrats…..232,589 people casting votes for Republicans. That's a 20% margin for the Democrats…..just on the total number of voters for each respective party.
Let's compare these numbers with 2000's primary numbers. (2004 had no GOP challenger).
In 2000 New Hampshire GOP primary votes totaled 236,802…..Dems 154,639. That's a 54% margin…for Republicans….on the total number of voters for each respective party. That makes the total swing to Democratic voters in the 8 years from 2000 to 2008 something like 75%!! And keep in mind that John McCain won in New Hampshire in both 2000 and 2008.
While New Hampshire GOP vote totals in 2008 were almost identical to their number in 2000, the Dems total was EIGHTY-ONE PERCENT HIGHER than their number was in 2000.
The total turnout for the two parties in the New Hampshire primary of 2000 was 391,441.
The total turnout for the two parties in 2008 was over 513,000. A THIRTY-ONE PERCENT increase.
Summarizing: Once again in New Hampshire, just like in Iowa, many more Democratic voters cast ballots than in the year 2000 or 2004. More Democratic voters were energized in 2008, 31% more, than in 2004, 81% more than in 2000. While this was changing, Republican voter numbers from 2000 and 2008 were virtually identical.
That makes it two states in a row now where the total number of Democratic voters has been significantly higher than 4 or 8 years ago.
That bodes well for a Democratic candidate in the general election in November. Yet to be determined is whether the Dems candidate will be Obama or Clinton.
