Lefties Lee and Nottingham got to go
Posted July 26th, 2007 by Stephanie Storm
Quick riddle: Who is worse on the mound right now - the Indians Cliff Lee or the Aeros Shawn Nottingham?
Quick answer: Both of them.
At least it seemed that way Thursday night.
In front of me on the field was the clearly overwhelmed Nottingham, who coughed up 10 runs - including eight in the first two innings to visiting Altoona to hand the Curve the win in the first game of this four-game series. He has lost his last four starts as his ERA has ballooned to 4.87.
Then there was Lee laboring on TV behind me, dishing up nine runs to Boston - after the Tribe had held the hard-hitting Red Sox to just a run the last two nights. Like Nottingham, Lee has been struggling for quite some time now.
It’s probably time for both pitchers to take a step back - Nottingham to Class-A Kinston and Lee (since he has an option remaining) to Triple-A Buffalo.
I know it’s a lot easier to send Nottingham down. I know the Indians are in a bind with their starters since their top two minor league options are left-hander Jeremy Sowers (still working out his struggles in Buffalo) and flame-throwing right-hander Adam Miller (placed on the disabled list Monday with elbow inflammation).
That leaves the Tribe probably having to add a starting pitcher to its trade wish list as the trading deadline quickly approaches. Or better yet - go with my plan of sending both Nottingham and Lee packing in a deal.
Seriously, wouldn’t someone want a pair of left-handers even if they stink right now?
On second thought, don’t answer that.
July 27th, 2007 at 5:08 pm
Runs Created per 27 outs is a statistic that Bill James created a while back to measure all of the different factors important to scoring in one number. It is then dictated in a fashion equivalent to team scoring. Thus, anything over about 4.5 is above average, with the elite players in the Major Leagues usually having around an 8.
The best catcher, without a question, in Runs Created per 27 outs currently in the Major Leagues is Victor Martinez, who has roughly a 7.5. Since the catcher position is the most demanding of all the fielding positions, catchers normally have the lowest runs created, and thus an offensively productive catcher is a very valuable commodity.
My point is that, Max Ramirez (who by my estimation has about a 7.5 runs created per 27 outs in his career in the minor leagues) is going to be a very talented offensive catcher in the years to come. He is only 22 years old, and he has been an All-Star in each of the past three seasons (also he was the Appalachian League Player of the Year in 2005, and a Futures Game player in 2007.)
Trading Ramirez was a mistake the Indians will regret in as little as two or three seasons when Ramirez is entering the league as a hot-shot prospect, and Kenny Lofton is exiting it.
July 28th, 2007 at 12:58 am
What if the Indians fair well during the rest of the season and possibly bring home a championship? Would they still regret it?
July 28th, 2007 at 1:11 pm
I have no problem with this trade, as you’re going to have to give up some minor league value to get major league value–especially this time of year–and giving up one A-ball prospect (albeit a good one) lowers the odds of this being a long-term disaster trade.
While Ramirez seems to have an excellent bat, I’ve never heard anything good about him as a catcher. I think he’s seen as a future major league bat without a position, and the Indians are already stacked at C/1B/DH. I don’t know if there’s any chance he could still play third… probably not, but there he’d be further behind the development of Wes Hodges anyway (and the chance that Andy Marte still works out).
Victor Martinez isn’t leaving anytime soon, and they still control Kelly Shoppach for awhile. As far as catching prospects go, Ramirez probably had the best bat, but the best defensive prospect (Wyatt Toregas) was a level ahead of him, and the best all-around catching prospect (Matt McBride) was a level behind him. It’s still a position of strength in the system.
My one complaint with Mark Shapiro has been that he’s too reluctant to deal the prospects he collects, and instead lets them back up at the higher levels where their development gets stifled, or they start running out of options before getting a real chance to establish themselves in the majors. It’s nice to see that Shapiro does know there’s another use for prospects.
July 28th, 2007 at 8:57 pm
Sorry Jacob, but I completely agree with Glen on this one.
While Jacob’s complicated math (he always does that to me) is impressive, simply put, the Indians need to stay in contention and win now. Kenny Lofton gives the Indians that chance this year. Max Ramirez’s impact wouldn’t be felt for a more years.
I’ve talked to Ramirez, he’s a great kid. I like his bat a lot. But I’m not sold on him as a catcher, and I don’t think the Indians were, either. Thus, he’s a Garko - a good bat but no position. Thus, he was not going to be able to impact the Indians now or anytime soon.
That being said, I don’t think the Indians wanted to get rid of Ramirez. But if that’s all Texas wanted for a proven veteran, well, then that’s one heck of a deal.
July 29th, 2007 at 10:10 pm
I think we could have gotten a lot more for Ramirez, at the least.
Have you read Terry Pluto’s book Dealing? It outlines Mark Shapiro’s plan for the Indians in his entire re-building process. 2007 was the year he pointed out all those years ago, as the first year the Indians should be in contention for the playoffs. Starting the years after, we will be in contention for League Championships and World Series titles. I think it was too early for Ramirez, but I still agree with Shapiro’s reluctant nature to trade any of the other prospects. It is too early for Cleveland fans to get caught up in the playoffs and the talk of pennants and championships.
Just like the Cavaliers (who stream-lined their re-building plan with their trip to the Finals this year,) the Indians have a set system of goals they should reach for the upcoming seasons. Here is how I see it:
2007 - contend for division title, contend very tightly for wild card, hopefully make playoffs.
2008 - win division title, or at the very least wild card. make playoffs.
2009 - making the playoffs, and winning the division title is a given. this is the year i expect us to finally start making a big splash in the playoffs. an american league championship would be the goal.
2010 and on - for as long as we can hold on, shapiro and company need to do a better job than the former management of competing for the long-term. they have done a good job thus far with signing players for a few years down the road, but young, talented players can never be signed for too long. the goal must be to win a world series, and bring a title to a championship-hungry fan-base.
July 30th, 2007 at 7:58 am
I love Ramirez, and I agree that he’ll make a MLB splash in a few years. That said, i agree with Stephanie and Glen on this. Your argument is predicated on him making the majors as a catcher, and I haven’t heard anything that resembles praise for his catching; he’s a bat.
Regarding his trade value, I don’t know. He went for Wickman last year (and I note that the Braves are again shopping for relief arms this year), and he went for a left-handed platoon bat this year. That seems like approximately equal trade value each year, doesn’t it?
As an aside, I’m told that the price for Lofton was either Ramirez or Barton. Tough choice, don’t you think?
Another aside, Keith Law, espn.com trade analyst and Scout.com writer endorsed the trade for the Indians. Doesn’t mean he’s right, but he’s got a reasonable sense of fair return value, don’t you think?